Who should I vote for?

Why people vote for certain candidates has been a subject of research probably ever since there has been voting. Though everyone and every race are different, there are certain decision criteria that have been discovered as being most important to voters. Name recognition is the best predictor of voting behavior with incumbency, which is highly correlated with name recognition, following closely behind. Party identification is also a very good predictor of how someone will vote in the general election. When voters are asked about how they will make a decision, they usually cite congruence with the candidate on the issues. Studies have shown that agreement on the issues is not really a good predictor and I would argue it is not a very good criterion for voters to use.

What’s your name?

While I was driving through Caldwell the other day, I saw an election sign for Curtis Bowers for State Representative. As I drove further down the road, I thought I saw another sign for Bowers. Upon closer inspection, the second sign was actually for Danny Bower who is running for County Prosecutor. I wondered, how many other people will make the same mistake? Why do candidates litter the town and countryside with signs? It is all in a name.

The most important criterion for winning an election, especially a low-profile race on the local level, is name recognition. Every study shows that just knowing a candidate’s name can affect the vote of many people. If you do not know anything else about a candidate but have seen his or her name somewhere, you will vote for that candidate over another candidate with an unfamiliar name. Now, some people will vote for “Anybody But …” that is not very common. Name recognition is the principal reason why incumbents get re-elected at such a high rate. Political party identification runs a poor second to name recognition in voter decision making.

Book of the Week Club: "C. Ben Ross and the New Deal in Idaho"

This book on Ross and Idaho during the Great Depression is very enlightening and considers an important person and time in the state’s history. Michael Malone describes the New Deal from the perspective of the state and state government instead of the top-down view typically presented. The New Deal’s effect on Idaho was different then it was for other areas, especially the urban centers of the country that were often the focus of the many of the programs. C. Ben Ross should also not be discounted. Though William Borah was more prominent, Ross was “the central figure of Idaho political life from 1928 through 1938.” His career could be instructional for many current politicians.

District 10 Representative Seat A: Now the voters decide

My district has a fascinating primary battle on the Republican side that is actually a continuation of an earlier controversy. Before the current legislative session, District 10 was represented by who I considered three of the best legislators in the state: Sen. John McGee (College of Idaho 1995) and Reps. Darrell Bolz and Bob Ring. Last year Bob Ring resigned his seat due to health issues and incompatibility with the new GOP leadership in the house. The GOP legislative committee for District 10 provided the governor with three nominees for the position with Pat Takasugi (College of Idaho 1971) as their No. 1 choice. The governor, within his prerogative, chose Curtis Bowers for the seat though both Takasugi and Jim Rice were listed above him by the local party leaders. Takasugi is now challenging Bowers in the primary, so the voters will be able to decide who they want.

Where’s my money?

Every three months, I have to go see my financial advisor. Our principal discussion usually revolves around retirement. I intend to retire sometime in the next 15 years depending upon how much money I have saved.

I participate in The College of Idaho’s 403b plan (similar to a 401k but for non-profits) where I contribute 7 percent of my pay and the College matches it. Because this money is invested in the stock market, I like to keep track of the market and see how close I am to my retirement goal. In the late 1990s, I thought I might be retired by now. Based upon the market’s performance in the last seven years, I may be working until I am 80 (pity my poor future students). What has changed, and where is my money?

Iraq War vets challenge GOP favorites

After every war in the history of our country, veterans have returned home and continued to serve their country in elected office. From George Washington to George Herbert Walker Bush, presidents have been drawn from the ranks of the active duty military with John McCain trying to join that list this year. The Iraq War veterans are beginning to serve in Congress as a few were elected in 2006. More, around a dozen, are running for Congress this year. Idaho has followed the lead of other parts of the country with two Iraq War veterans running for Congress this year against better known opponents in the GOP primary.

The Book of the Week Club: “A Political Dynasty in North Idaho, 1933-1967: Compton White, Sr. & Compton White, Jr."

The full title -- “A Political Dynasty in North Idaho, 1933-1967: Compton White, Sr. & Compton White, Jr. Two Men – Two Visions – Two Fates” -- is long for a short book (112 pages including notes at the end of each chapter). The book is a culmination of the author’s (Randall Doyle) dissertation at the University of Idaho and reads like an academic piece, as compared to the books in previous reviews. It is well researched with extensive interviews, especially with Compton White, Jr. (JR). Doyle does well covering a few areas but in the end it is his subjects that let him down. Though both Whites were decent public servants (combined having represented Idaho’s First Congressional District for twenty years), neither was influential or even very interesting. At least politicians like Glenn Taylor and George Hansen, though marginal figures, are interesting to read about.

Why a 'Gas Tax Holiday' won't reduce the price of gasoline

John McCain has proposed, and now Hillary Clinton also supports, a “gas-tax holiday” for this summer. I am all for holidays but will this proposal really be effective in lowering gas prices?

The proposal from McCain calls for the elimination of the Federal Government’s 18.4 cent per gallon tax on gasoline and the 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day until Labor Day. According to the Associated Press, McCain has claimed the proposal, “would reduce gas prices, which would have a trickle-down effect, and help to spread relief across the American economy."

The bulk of the money from fuel taxes are used for infrastructure, including road improvements that use GARVEE bonds to borrow against these funds. McCain has intimated that the loss revenue would be made up to state and localities from general revenues while Clinton wants to use a “wind-fall” profits tax on oil companies to make up for the lost tax dollars. The problems with this program are that it will not reduce the price of gasoline by the amount of the tax and it is not a very efficient means of providing relief to the people who need it the most.

Ron Paul: The Classic Liberal for President

Last Friday, I attended the Ron Paul rally with about 1,000 other people in Jewett Auditorium on the campus of The College of Idaho. (By the way, Ralph Smeed, the faculty of the College was not picketing outside the hall but many of us were inside to listen. We are open minded toward the views of almost anyone, unlike you). Though Paul is not the most eloquent speaker, he was able to get the crowd very excited based upon the ideas he put forth. His libertarian ideology does not fit cleanly into either political party’s platform. In order to understand Paul’s ideology, we must trace the history of American political thought back to the time of the ratification of the Constitution.

'Gotcha' politics and the media that covers it

I know I am a geek when it comes to policy but doesn’t anyone else care about the position taken by the candidates?

One can go to the candidates’ Web sites to find out their positions but there is very little talk about issues when it comes to the media’s coverage of campaigns. It is not even possible to find this information out for most local candidates as many do not have Web sites.

Regardless, reading their position papers is not enough. Where are the probing questions that challenge candidates’ assertions and critique their plans for the future? It is being done to a limited extent by the print media but hardly at all by the talking heads of television news.

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