Uof I climate workshop shows how warming has already changed Idaho

Climatic changes are triggering bigger fires and longer fires seasons like this year when 1.7 million acres burned in Idaho.

That's not surprising to University of Idaho fire scientists. Decades of fire suppression have contributed to the size of fires but the trend, especially since 1980 can be attributed to climate change said Kerry Kemp, a University of Idaho fire ecologist.

"We can explain 50 to 80 percent of the annual area burned by climate alone," Kemp told scientists from federal agencies and interest groups Thursday in Boise.

By the middle of this century the median area burned will increase five times not taking into account what actions are taken to limits it, Kemp said. This year fires while large were hemmed in by the many fires that have burned across the state since the late 1980s.

"At ome point we're going to run out of thins to burn," Kemp said.

With more fires comes cascading ecological effects that reach right into the front door of Treasure Valley residents. From 1992 to 2003, 45 percent of the Middle Fork of the Boise River watershed burned increasing runoff by five percent or 50,000 acre feet annually says Forest Service hydrologist Charles Luce.

The scientists have been talking amongst themselves about these climatic changes but managers of federal lands, rivers and wildlife as well as the public have had a hard time keeping up. That's because so much data has been generated in the last decade, said Jerod Blades, a Uof I social scientist.

“That integration of that into management has been rather slow,” he said.

Blades and a team of University of Idaho scientists, funded by the National Science Foundation are holding a series of workshops across the Northern Rockies region to help expand the conversation. They were in Boise Thursday at the Foothills Environmental Education Center.

Getting the science into the hands of the people who are making decisions now can help them and the public begin to adapt to the rapidly accelerating changes. Small group meetings that allow people to share their own experiences also is helping the scientific community to learn to communicate better, said Troy Hall, a University of Idaho social science professor.

Randy Hayman, a planner on the Boise National Forest presented to the Idaho Roadless Commission this week a proposal to replant an area that burned north of Warm Lake in 2007 and has not grown back. The trees that were burned in the area, mostly Douglas fir, germinated during a period when the climate was wetter and cooler.

He’s seen changes in the structure of the forest that his education and experience don’t explain. So he talked to the University of Idaho’s Penny Morgan, a fire ecologist working with the climate team, about what trees to plant anticipating a drier, warmer future.

The suitable habitat for ponderosa pine and Douglas fir may move up to higher elevations, Ecologist Kerry Kemp said. But more projects like Hayman’s may become necessary because the seed sources may not be there.

This year hundreds of thousands of acres of the Boise watershed burned and the Forest Service’s Luce expects runoff from the watershed to rise even more. But even as the fires increase the runoff, the climatic change has reduced the runoff in the Boise watershed by 250,000 acre-feet annually since 1950, just below the capacity of Lucky Peak, Luce said.

Along with these measurable change has come increasing variability in the timing of precipitation, extreme events like floods and droughts that have raised the uncertainty for managers, said Zion Klos, a U of I hydrologist.

Klos gave a basic presentation on the cause of global warming, that includes the basics everyone at the workshop knew. Levels of carbon dioxide and other gases released by the burning of fossil fuels are at levels unseen in human history.

These gases trap more heat below the atmosphere, as the sun’s radiation is captured by the earth and sea, the concept known as the Greenhouse effect. It’s not all bad, Klos said.

“We need it to be able to live on earth,” he said.

At 391 parts per million carbon dioxide is at levels higher than anytime in the last 140,000 years. This has led to rapid warming -- about two degrees in the Pacific Northwest since early in the 20th Century.

Yet the latest poll by the Rasmussen Report shows that while 68 percent of likely voters now believe in climate change, a record, only 41 percent think it is because of human activity.

The future conditions depend on how much we reduce greenhouse gases and stabilize the population. The uncertainty of the effects in the future keeps society from acting today, Klos said.

Klos compared it to a doctor telling a patient you have to reduce your cholesterol and exercise more.

“Would anybody tell their doctor if you can’t tell me precisely when I am going to have a heart attack why should I change my lifestyle?” he said.

But Klos was preaching to the choir. Forest Service entomologist Dwight Scarbrough said outreach only goes so far.

“It’s a discussion we’ve been having for quite a long time but some people choose not to participate,” he said.

Ive told everyone that Liberal

yuppies are taking over Idaho....

The warmest ever on earth was the dinosaur era....too bad Gore didnt stop it then when he had a chance too with his monkey ancestors....

Funny...

You deny and mock science and then use it to try to make your point. Really, that's hilarious!

It's very funny, indeed...

Science works when you tell me life begins at conception. Science doesn't work when you tell me to stop driving my Hummer.

No scientist would say life begins at conception

Conception is the coming together of two very much living entities. Nobody knows how life began. Darwin's work was about the origin of species, not life. Only superstitious fools think they know how life began.

Oh Snap

Another example of Union Thuggery, Liberals and Science. They won't stop with all there education and dem facts.

Sincerely,

GOP

science is fun

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

Global warming stopped 16 years ago according to scientific study, by scientists, about science and stuff.

So are misleading graphs

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/03/data-presentation-a-trend-lesson/

For the last 15 years

the trending temperature has been in favor of slight Global Cooling. http://www.thegwpf.org/massive-human-co2-emissions-still-unable-to-reverse-natures-global-cooling-over-last-15-years/

Yes...

...and all that cooling is making the polar icecap melt.

It sure makes the posters hotter.

----------

Nothing happened and what if it did?

Rocky justs loves those

Junk Science press releases. Gives him something to do and get paid for it.

There never has been any Global Warming....

It is 'money' warming....when carbon is taxed, I bet alvin gore is receiving too....

Think, just once...

Do you really believe pollution is good for us?

What is with the Right?

They are knee-jerk against almost everything favorable to the environment; from electric cars to renewable energy to better gas mileage to the EPA to Global Warming or whatever. What is that about? Are they pro-pollution? It must be because Big Guvment is involved in trying to protect our environment. Thank god BG is; you'd die holding your breath waiting for industry and the magic of the market place to do it.

It was under Richard Nixon that the

EPA was formed....also the Clean Air and Water Act....

If you are that concerned, then please quit driving and live by example....

I bet I recycle and conserve more than you?

Nixon was no Reagan

There are always notable exceptions to every general trend. But I stand with my observation (and bewilderment) at the Right's general ridicule of almost everything pertaining to environmental issues, from Salmon to CO2. It's just weird.

Reagan was the best since Lincoln, no doubt....

CO2? Cmon, that is nothing but the New World Orders way of milking the middle cla$$....

You make my point

better than I do. LOL

Eisenhower saved Europe for the world!

----------

Nothing happened and what if it did?

Those who can make you

Those who can make you believe in absurdities can make you commit atrocities .

That explains Yahoo! and You Tube.

----------

Nothing happened and what if it did?

AGW is a scam

and a fraud perpetrated by water mellons; green on the outside, commie red on the inside. Isn't it ironic that the politicians who are so concerned that the climate might be a bit warmer long after they are dead have no reservations about saddling our children and grandchildren with the largest debt in history? If we were to ask these unborn if they would rather have the climate a few degrees cooler (which I doubt is even true) or be born owing hundreds of thousands of dollars that we have already spent, which do you think they would choose?

Hey...

...let's all ignore it and it will go away.

Cholestoral

Fact is, climate change deniars are the same folks who ignore their doctor when she tells them to mind their cholestoral. So, they will be going the way of the polar ice caps in short order. Too bad they want to take the rest of us with them.

At one time, there were no

polar caps....

That is why much oil, fossils, etc. The entire earth at one time was warm....

not a bad idea really....

This site is scorched earth, that's for certain.

----------

Nothing happened and what if it did?

PS Millions of people clear their cookies regularly...

Don't you think they'll figure it out if only by ACCIDENT?

Cat's out of the bag.

----------

Nothing happened and what if it did?

This story is as old as my fossilized ancestry!

----------

Apple users, run the Gig of RAM your PC needs to have and read the dumb tech white papers, wrinkle your forehead and buy more food and toilet paper with the difference. The internet is a piece of junk anyway and your cats know this.