I asked former 1st District Rep. Larry LaRocco how he reads the national election and his response was so thorough, I figured it would be of interest to readers.
LaRocco said he trusts Nate Silver, the New York Times prognosticator who writes the FiveThirtyEight blog. Silver's latest forecast puts President Obama's likelihood of winning at 72.9 percent, with 294.6 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 243.4.
Now a lobbyist in Washington, D.C., LaRocco was elected in 1990, re-elected in 1992 and lost to Republican Helen Chenoweth in 1994. LaRocco lost to Republican Jim Risch for lieutenant governor in 2006 and the U.S. Senate in 2008.
Risch said the race is too close to call.
"Anyone would have to be a fool who would try to predict with any degree of certainty the outcome of this presidential election," said Risch, co-chairman of the Romney campaign in Idaho.
Here's the text of LaRocco's email
I've become a Nate Silver fan. He's a MoneyBall geek and I think he calls it right.
Romney's recent ad in Ohio saying Jeep/Chrysler was moving jobs to China was a blatant lie and showed desperation to me. Romney may win Florida but he doesn't run the table as he needs to in the battleground states. Kaine is up on Allen in Virginia's Senate race and that's a good sign. Northern Virginia will bring it home for Obama in Virginia.
The GOP talking heads are quoting Rasmussen and Gallup polls right now and talking about closing all kinds of gaps. Gallup has become an outlier poll and Rasmussen over samples GOP voters. I think the race has settled down since the first debate and the Obama ground game has been in place for 2 years in key states. I truly believe that wins it. Dems tout the paid staff in the states and the GOP touts the number of calls made. In the end, the paid staff expand the net through empowerment of locals and that puts boots on the ground in swing precincts. Advantage Dems in on-the-ground strategies.
It's tough to say how Hurricane Sandy affects the race. I believe we will see Obama surrogates reminding America that Romney wants to turn FEMA back to the states and then to private sector. Obama needs to be careful about politicizing the disaster.
I worry about the racial divide in the US and the strong feeling among many that the US has driven off the rails in many ways. Romney is portraying himself as someone who will restore traditional values. He's hoping that might work.
The last labor stats come out on Friday. They could still swing a few votes depending on the trend.
The Tea Party has hurt in Indiana and Missouri like they did in Delaware and Nevada last time. Senate stays in Dem control and pick up a couple of seats in the House. Boehner may very well be challenged by Cantor very soon.
After Tuesday approximately one-third of the House will be comprised of freshmen and sophomores. That spells more gridlock.
Fiscal cliff gets settled in lame duck. Obama shows backbone after he wins.
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