Last week's poll by Grove Insight of Portland, Ore., overlapped with an Idaho Statesman poll that showed opponents leading by small margins on two of three propositions and slightly behind on the third.
The survey was conducted for "Vote No on Propositions 1, 2, 3," which said pollsters talked to 500 likely, registered voters. The margin for error was 4.4 percentage points, said the Vote No group.
On Proposition 1 (unions), 48 percent said they would vote "no," 31 percent "yes," and 20 percent undecided.
On Proposition 2 (performance pay), 47 percent said "no" to 34 percent "yes," and 19 percent undecided.
On Proposition 3 (laptops), 53 percent said "no" to 29 percent "yes," and 18 percent undecided.
In the Statesman poll, "no" voters led 42 percent to 38 percent on Prop 1, with 20 percent undecided.
"Yes" voters led 42 percent to 39 percent on Prop 2, with 19 percent undecided.
On Prop 3, "no" voters led 47 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
The Statesman's pollster was Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C. Surveys were conducted Oct. 8-10 of 625 likely, registered voters, with a margin for error of 4 percent. The Grove poll was conducted Oct. 9-11.
Mike Lanza, chairman of the 'no' campaign, said, "This confirms what we've believed all along: voters want to repeal these laws." He added that Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Luna "wrote these laws without asking any parents or professional educators to weigh in on what our schools need. That's why the Luna laws are a failure."
Ken Burgess, who leads the YES for Idaho Education campaign, declined to disclose any internal polling by proponents.
On Tuesday, Burgess said of the Statesman poll: "After eighteen months of the union maligning this education reform (with some help from media and editorialists); After six weeks and One million-plus national union dollars pummeling the airwaves talking about how bad reform is: The propositions are: 1. Statistically even, and 2. Still 19-20% are undecided. And we (the YES campaign) haven’t even run an aggressive campaign to date. That should be concerning to the opponents."
Burgess added: "Having not the access to a bottomless pit of national union money, we have strategically kept our powder dry...but that ends this week."
I sent Burgess a copy of the Grove poll Tuesday afternoon and this morning he weighed in on the second survey, writing, "...(I)f we assume their info is statistically sound…. It would indicate we’ve got some work to do. There is still a large number of undecided voters according to this poll, and I am confident that over the next few weeks we will move most of those voters to the YES column. We don’t have the benefit of the crosstabs, but I’ll bet they show liberals and democrats have made up their minds with very few undecideds left for the opposition to capture from their reliable demographic."
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