New study says wildfires will be more frequent in West, world

Huge fires burning in New Mexico and Colorado have federal officials assuring people they will have the resources to fight big fires later this season when the blazes move north.

The relatively cool spring and the amount of rain and snow would historically give land managers comfort going into the fire season. Those cool temperatures have kept the rangeland fires down this month.

Fires triggered by sparks from gun fire have kept firefighters running the last week when the wind came up. The season is one to two weeks behind schedule said Ed Delgado, National Interagency Fire Center predictive program manager.

But now it's beginning especially in southwest Idaho, which Delgado predicts could be a trouble spot this year.

"We had a wet spring and there's a lot of grass out there,
Delgado said.

With plenty of fuel out there it could get hot in the rangeland once it dries out in July. "We're going to get hotter and drier," he said.

And if July temperatures rise like they have the last few years, wind will be the deciding factor again for the severity of the fire season in the Northern Rockies.

It used to be that fire season ended in late August or early September when a cold front came through bringing rain and sometimes snow in the high country. Now fire season lasts into late September and longer as warmer temperatures last.

"Firefighters talk about a season-ending event," Delgado said. "I'm not convinced that's happening. I've seen fire seasons running well into November."

What we are seeing here is going on world wide a new study said. And its going to get worse.

The study was led by a team led by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, in collaboration with an international team of scientists. It was published today in Ecosphere, an open-access, peer-reviewed journal of the Ecological Society of America.

"Most of the previous wildfire projection studies focused on specific regions of the world, or relied upon only a handful of climate models," said Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech and co-author of the study. "Our study is unique in that we build a forecast for fire based upon consistent projections across 16 different climate models combined with satellite data, which gives a global perspective on recent fire patterns and their relationship to climate."

By the end of the century, almost all of North America and most of Europe is projected to see a jump in the frequency of wildfires, primarily because of increasing temperatures. At the same time, fire activity could actually decrease near the equator because of increased rainfall in tropical rainforests.

"In the long run, we found what most fear - increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet," said lead author Max Moritz, a fire specialist in UC Cooperative Extension. "But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising.”

The models have a high level of uncertainty about what will happen in the next few decades in most parts of the planet. But not here in the West.

We have been getting more and larger fires and that's going to continue.

"When many different models paint the same picture, that gives us confidence that the results of our study reflect a robust fire frequency projection for that region," Hayhoe said.

It is the same story as when Heath Druzin and I did an extensive series in 2007. Here is part one . Here is part 2. And here is part 3.

Now five years later how much have we improved? There clearly is more emphasis on people protecting their own homes. Cities like Boise have updated codes to help neighborhoods protect themselves.

And the science continues to improve.

"Our ability to model fire activity is improving," Moritz said. "A more basic challenge now is learning to coexist with fire itself."

fires

Rocko, you are an idiot. Here is part one. Part 2. And here is part 3.

Part 1.
The relatively cool spring and the amount of rain and snow would historically give land managers comfort going into the fire season. But those cool temperatures have kept the rangeland fires down this month.

Part 2.
Fires triggered by sparks from gun fire have kept firefighters running the last week when the wind came up. And if July temperatures rise like they have the last few years, wind will be the deciding factor again for the severity of the fire season in the Northern Rockies.

Part 3.
Cities like Boise have updated codes to help neighborhoods protect themselves.

update makes Part 4.
With plenty of fuel out there it could get hot in the rangeland once it dries out in July.

suggestion

I think you can make your point without the personal attacks. We have all got it by now.. you think Rocky is an idiot. Give it a rest.

It's more arsonists anyway. Who are you to say for pimp?

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Etta Kent is dead

oh good

Okay, I'm glad you got my point.
I'm concerned the enviros don't get it.

No rest for the wicked!

double talk

from the other arcticle:
"Most scientists and fire managers agree that fire is a healthy and necessary part of the forest, and that fighting these blazes serves only to build up fuels and boost the size and frequency of catastrophic fires."

Here Rock writes:

"almost all of North America ...is projected to see a jump in the frequency of wildfires, primarily because of increasing temperatures."

***
CONFLICTING STORIES:

"fighting the fires has boosted the size and frequency"
and
"increasing temperatures" is the cause.

Wait, I know the Rock is going to reply with, "They both are causing the problem".

***
Junk Junk Junk.
Rocko writes Junko!

Yeah, but you'd be lonely without it...fess up.

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You fry wants with that?

Rocky needs to stick with camping stories

and leave lies about stuff to others.

He'll take all of Outdoors' bylines. SHEESH!

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You fry wants with that?

What's The Real Science?

For as long as I can remember:
1. When we have had a good snow pack, fire managers have predicted a bad fire year based upon fuel growth.

2. When we have a long, wet Spring, fire managers have predicted a bad fire year based upon fuel growth.

3. When we have below average snow pack and/or a dry Spring, fire managers have predicted a bad fire year based upon tinder dry fuel.

Fire managers ALWAYS predict a bad fire year, otherwise there is no preparedness and, more importantly, NO FUNDING.

You prefer them to be on Food Stamps?

There's your sign.

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You fry wants with that?

Food stamps

Would be a loooot cheaper.

The forest service should be setting fires, not putting them out.

Truth is hard to come by

Bingo

Can I get a round of applause for this post. This is exactly the way it is.

Fahrenhreit 452, sweet Caroline

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You fry wants with that?

She ran calling Wiiiiildfire!

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You fry wants with that?