Home streaks point toward Boise State playing Iowa in Fiesta

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By Chadd Cripe
ccripe@idahostatesman.com
© 2009 Idaho Statesman

One of the two longest home winning streaks in the nation likely will need to end to prevent Boise State from claiming a Bowl Championship Series berth this year.

Oklahoma has the nation’s longest home streak at 28 games. The Broncos need the Sooners to beat Oklahoma State on Nov. 28 in Norman to eliminate the team that is perceived as the last legitimate threat to the Broncos for the last at-large BCS spot.

Boise State has the second-longest streak at 24 games. The Broncos’ most difficult remaining game is Nov. 27 at home against Nevada. Nevada likely will have an eight-game winning streak and a 7-0 WAC record — and the Wolf Pack took the Broncos to four overtimes the last time they visited, in 2007.

So for this week’s bowl projections, I’m betting on those two home trends holding true and pushing the Broncos into the BCS. (Also, Texas needs to win the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns will be heavily favored.) Below, I also have posted projections that assume Oklahoma State wins its last two games.

BCS bowls:

BCS National Championship Game (No. 1 vs. No. 2): Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl (Pac-10 vs. Big Ten): Oregon vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl (1st pick vs. 5th pick): Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl (2nd pick vs. 4th pick): Iowa vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl (ACC vs. 3rd pick): Georgia Tech vs. TCU

Eligible but left out: LSU, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin (the rule limiting conferences to two bids eliminates three of these teams)

WAC bowls:

Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Bowling Green

New Mexico: Nevada vs. Wyoming

Hawaii: Fresno State vs. SMU

A couple notes about bowls:

— It appears BCS-conference 6-6 teams will be left out of the at-large pool because too many non-BCS teams will have seven wins. That means UCLA and Iowa State wouldn’t be available to the H-Bowl at 6-6.

— It appears the Poinsettia Bowl will not be available for a WAC team this year. It’s available only if the Pac-10 gets two teams into the BCS and UCLA and Arizona State don’t get eligible.

— In my projections, only three non-BCS bowls will have true at-large openings — the Humanitarian (Mountain West), Motor City (Big Ten) and GMAC (ACC). A couple other openings will be filled through contingency arrangements. As long as TCU gets a BCS berth, the Mountain West will not have a team to put in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Now, here’s the version that assumes Oklahoma State wins out:

BCS:

BCS National Championship Game (No. 1 vs. No. 2): Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl (Pac-10 vs. Big Ten): Oregon vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl (1st pick vs. 5th pick): Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl (2nd pick vs. 4th pick): Oklahoma State vs. TCU

Orange Bowl (ACC vs. 3rd pick): Georgia Tech vs. Iowa

Eligible but left out: Boise State, LSU, Penn State, Virginia Tech

WAC bowls:

Hawaii: Boise State vs. Houston

Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Bowling Green

New Mexico: Fresno State vs. Wyoming

Motor City: Nevada vs. Central Michigan

This would get interesting. The WAC would shop for the best possible matchup for Boise State — and the only team that makes sense is Houston. The problem is where to play the game. The Hawaii Bowl probably would rather have SMU (and former Hawaii coach June Jones). If Houston wins C-USA, the Cougars go to the Liberty Bowl, which is obligated to take an SEC team. CollegeBCS.com has the Broncos playing Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl, which would be quite a letdown. It’s also possible a deal could be worked out to put the Broncos in the Emerald Bowl against the No. 4 pick out of the Pac-10 — but that wouldn’t be very attractive unless the opponent is USC. The Emerald would have to get rid of an ACC team to make that happen, but the ACC has two bowls it isn’t going to fill — EagleBank and GMAC — so that’s at least possible. The ACC might even prefer that arrangement to cut travel costs.

Go Buffs

I'll be pulling for Colorado against Okey State, tonight. Probably a long shot, but who knows, stranger things happen in college football. Anybody know the spread?

sooners fan

for now.

Vegas Line

Oklahoma State over CU by 14 1/2. Hawk is in serious trouble this year. I'm a Sooner fan right now too, so far.

Sooner Fan

For now.....Just don't ask me to be a fan of Stoops.........

Why not...

be a fan of Stoops? He gave BSU the biggest victory in their history! There should be a statue of him on the BSU campus and he should be named in the credits of the Fiesta Bowl highlight video.

Hawk Has One Last Chance

To do BSU a favor. The Hawkins Farewell Tour makes a pit stop tonight at Oklahoma State. Go Fluffs!

ok, this really bothers me....

why is it that everyone dates the Broncos home winning streak back to the Boston College H-Bowl game. BSU was the visiting team for that game (that's why we wore the white uniforms). Bowl games have a designated home/visitor relationship with the conferences PRIOR to the teams being selected and the WAC team was the visitor for that game. Yes, it was our stadium, but did Oklahomas home winning streak end when they lost the Fiesta Bowl?

Home streak

The NCAA considers the Humanitarian Bowl a home game.

difference

There is a difference between being the home team in a bowl game and playing on your home field. The H-Bowl is in Bronco Stadium, that means every time BSU plays here, it is a home game. Where as the Fiesta Bowl was not home to either BSU or Oklahoma.

Idaho vs. Bowling Green H-Bowl?

I think it's time to shut it down if this is what we are left with. Too many bowl games if this is what they expect to put on the field. On the other hand Vandolls, I do think the Akey is going to have a great season next year and will probably play in the Las Vegas Bowl...as the coach for UNLV.

Go Broncos!

What do you mean...

those are two top powerhouses that legitimize BSU's tough schedule to justify their high ranking and enterance into a BCS bowl.

Nice...

That is a good point. But, should BSU be penalized for playing by the rules? I think it is great for the school and our city to get such positive attention. Go Broncos!!

BINGO!

You've got all of the above correct. Geez, they'll be GIVING away tickets to the H-Bowl. Not good at all. Could be curtains for the mighty H-Bowl. How many free tickets do you think they'll push out? Any guesses? How about 10,000?

H-Bowl tickets

They give away at least that many every year as-is. I know people who go every year and the only years they've had to pay are when BSU or Idaho was playing.

id vs bowling green

please bowling green played bsu and lost bsu vs ucla boise game id goes to hawaii

Idaho vs. Bowling Green....

Is about as exciting as BJC vs. Houston or BJC vs. Central Michigan.

Oklahoma St. Really?

I know all the big guys talk about how Oklahoma St. will take Boise St.'s spot in the Fiesta but I just don't believe it. I really don't, and to be honest I'm tired of hearing about it. Let's have a little faith that as the 6th ranked team, as an undefeated team, that BSU can travel well to the Fiesta game, sell all the tickets like it did last time, and get an even better TV rating than last time. I'm tired of Idahostatesman sports writers, jump on the bandwagon and QUIT trying to be so objective, WE CAN DO IT!

My dearest Learjet......sorry to also be so objective.

I'm so sorry but this time Cripe has it right. The Fiesta is just too cozy with the Big 12 AND Oklahoma State would sell more tickets AND bring more 'eyeballs' to the TV ratings. Just fact.

Yer right.......

The country would rather watch a 10-2 (assuming they beat the Sooners) team that has one signature win, over a currently 6-4 Georgia team and were blown out by their only top ten opponent 41-14. Rather than a 7th ranked 13-0 BSU team. Make sense to me :/

And before you go selling tickets to OSU fan, you might do some research, read something the other day about the unemployment rate in Stillwater and Tulsa being its highest in 26 years.

Oh well, the way you talk you've been an AD, BSC exec, and a sports TV exec, so I'm sure you know what you're saying

early prognostication...

Oklahoma St. SOS 58-71. BSU SOS 84-103. I would rather see OSU but I don't believe they will beat Oklahoma. I also don't think BSU will beat Nevada and Pitt will beat Cincinatti.

What really irks me

The Sooner and Cowboy game won't even be televised or is it. Anybody know?

And before you go all know it all on us,

"TheTruthTeller", Last year OSU fan purchased only 5,000 tickets for the Holiday Bowl (Oregon over 8,000). The TV rating for the Holiday bowl was 3.9.

BSU fan purchased just over 8,000 tickets (10K from one publication) and the Pointsettia Bowl TV rating was just over 4.2

BUT, I'm sure you're still right.........

thank you

exactly, after watch OSU struggle against Colorado last night I think my point was proven further. OSU's quarterback was terrible, the chances of their starter coming back are slim, which makes BSU that much more appealing. Just wait and see, I'll be there at the Fiesta Bowl with my Orange and Blue cheering on the Broncos!

hmmm...

and how did you feel about BSU struggling with UC Davis--their first line was in until the last four minutes of teh 4th quarter?

Home streak - Boise Vs Iowa

Great. If that happens then everyone in the country will figure out that Idaho and Iowa are 2 different places!

Colorado tonight!!

Hawkins has clicked his heels three times and said the magic words.

I think Hawk said the wrong majic words.....

.....or did you mean bye, bye Colorado? Perhaps Petersen will have an assistant coach opening for Hawk.

How does this help?

You have a shorter attention span than a Twitter user.

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Like a midair collision with a tugboat

Hawaiiiiiiiiiiiii Ug / H bowl doesnt have a chance

Dont see that many fans going there. Give me H bowl before Hawaiiiiiii ug-ug. You really think Bowling green, or some other non bcs teams at 7/5 will out draw ucla at 6/6. No wonder the H bowl doesnt have a chance. I thought bowls was suppose to draw people from OUT of town.

H-Bowl can't dig any deeper....

When you're forced to dig way, way down deep that's what you get. A jammed packed Bronco Stadium with a grand total of maybe 25,000 of which about 10,000 got it free.

ESPN

Well, if you watched the colorado game last night, you heard the espn announcers saying over and over how Oklahoma St. will be the "at large" pick over BSU when they beat Oklahoma. They even said how barely pulling off the win over Colorado showed how the Oklahoma St. was a quality team that just knows how to win. And, that BSU can completely blow out Utah St. and it will probably not help them at all. Maybe BSU needs to trail every crappy opponent and "pull out those quality wins in the last quarter"

They both looked really bad and sloppy. The quaterbacks were no where near where Moore is now.

Well.....

I hope that we can stop all Nevada's rushers and that either the Sooners or common sense keep OSU out of the BCS game, but if that fails playing USC would be a tolerable back up plan...not so much Central Michigan though, and Houston only because of Keenum and Moore texting each other. It would be easier for me to tolerate those who blame us for the state of the WAC and tell us we were undeserving of BCS games if these bowls didn't have conference affiliations and we got to play the other "just missed the cut" teams like LSU or Penn State....it's the marquee opponents that make BCS bowls so intruiging to me, not the $$$ or the prestige. GO BRONCOS!

My take

BSU's spectacular finish in the 2006/2007 F. Bowl will have the big boys wanting to have us back. It will get great attention from the whole nation. Marketing firms could have a hey day with this. OSU does not have a following. The football college in that state is Oklahoma. OSU who? No not the Beavers. I've met some Oklahomans and that's what the consensus is. Colorado almost knocked them off last night, think Oklahoma will.

Frustrating

As I posted above, OSU's signature win is over a currently 6-4 Georgia. They have 3 wins of 7 points or less points over teams that are 6-4, 5-5, and 3-8. They were blown out by the only current top team they faced 41-14 (Texas). Then there is "WhatsHisTruth" and the "eyeballs" and "butts" argument that the FACTS show is a complete fabrication.

Those ESPN dudes should be made to stay after school and research what comes out of their mouth.

Rant off

No One Can Stop Nevada's Rushers

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. BSU's toughest game of the season is still to be played. Oregon was nothing. Nevada has put up 101 points against the Broncos in just their last two games, losing both by the tiniest of margins. Nevada outscored BSU 31-17 in the second half of their last game visibly dominating the line. At the time, Nevada had the number 1 rushing offense in the nation. That was then, this is now. Nevada's rushing offense is even better this year leading the nation with nearly 400 yards per game and number 2 Georgia Tech by more than 40 yards per game. Nevada is about to do something that has never been done before in college FB history, have 3 rushers go over 1,000 yards. No one has been able to stop Nevada's rush, not Notre Dame, Fresno, or Missouri. 70 points against Idaho. 55 against Fresno, the numbers are huge. Nevada managed to run the ball very well against Notre Dame but turnovers in the red zone killed them. Despite that loss, the pundits was surprised at the ease with which Nevada ran the ball down ND's throat for well over 135 yards. While BSU struggled against Fresno State and La Tech, Nevada destroyed both by huge margins. Comparing performance against opponents in common, Nevada has outscored BSU handily. The difference between Nevada last year and this year is simple, their offense is even scarier. But that's not what I worry about. Their defense has improved even more. Though still susceptible to giving up big plays in the secondary, their new defensive coordinator has made huge strides. The D-line is racking up sacks and TFL and is among the best in country. So in an ironic twist, it is Nevada's defense that is now becoming almost as good as their offense. Their early losses against ND and Mizzou prepped them well for WAC play as they have basically destroyed nearly every WAC team they have faced. They are playing with tremendous confidence right now. A 12-0 season for BSU is no certainty.

And here comes

the #6 team in the nation. Nevada may be pealing right now but BSU is a top 10 team may I remind you. Even though Nevada has scored big on BSU the W seems to escape Nevada.

Trust me....being #6 doesn't mean a thing come Friday night!!

Being rated number 6 is nice. But come Friday night kickoff time it means absolutely nothing.

BSU is ranked

#6 for a reason. They don't have any weaknesses. Great on D and the O will blow you up. They have already stopped a dual QB and have played Kap and Krew in years past. Not saying this will be an easy game but I think BSU will come away with a win.

Oregon was not the toughest game?

Not sure you can say that Oregon was not the toughest team on the BSU schedule. Oregon has one major asset and that is speed. They are perhaps the fastest team in college football next to Florida. Speed is the one thing you can't coach. You either have it or you don't. No doubt Nevada will prove to be a very tough opponent for the BSU defense. Frankly, they scare me offensively. But when you compare Oregon to Nevada you have to look at both sides of the ball and when you do that Oregon is the clear winner.

You can bet Nevada will come into Boise fired up. REAL fired up. It's important for the Broncos to get off to a fast start, especially on defense. Shootout? Could very well be a very high scoring game.

topdoc's numbers totally WRONG

"Comparing performance against opponents in common, Nevada has outscored BSU handily."

Boise has averaged 51.67 points against common opponents, Nevada has averaged 47.8. Boise's average win has been by 29.8 points among common opponents, Nevada's average win is by 24 points. Try doing you math before getting hysterical about the almighty pistol.

Boise will handle the almighty pistol like they did last year (144 yards). Nevada was in the game due to Kellen's three picks--including two for touchdowns--not because of the almighty pistol.

Topdoc seems to be one of the few Bronco fans

that is actually looking at the numbers. I had one fan tell me that Utah State only got beat by a few points to Nevada as this should assure us a win. It is a good thing that BSU's offense can put up some big numbers as it will take everything they have I can assure you to not get run off the field against the Wolfpack. It is true Bronco fans so wake up from your naps and realize that the 12th man at Bronco stadium may be the turning point in this game as Nevada will bring all that we can handle. It is a good thing we are at home as I would hate to play this red hot team in Reno, as I doubt we could stay with them with the holes that our defense is giving up. You can only trade punches for so long with another team and make mistakes before a team makes us pay for it dearly, and the wolfpack can easily be that team

Bronco Players Really Need Bronco Nation To 'Show Up' 4 Nevada

grinandbearit sez: " . . . Bronco fans so wake up from your naps and realize that the 12th man at Bronco stadium may be the turning point in this game . . . "

This is about the truest (en pointe) post I have read on these threads in a long time.

I have been sensing a large amount of overconfidence from my Bronco buddies for the last month. A sense of 'entitlement' to an undefeated season. I too, have been guilty of this 'expectation' (i.e., starting to make preliminary travel plans to a post season bowl in Arizona).

I traveled to Reno for the Idaho-Nevada game, and witnessed first-hand the 'awesomeness' of the Pack and how quickly their offense can put points on the board.
This team should not be overlooked by the Bronco fans, nor should Bronco fans continue to 'expect' an undefeated season - it will have to be earned the old fashioned way - the Broncos gotta win. Easier said than done.

BSU can win, if Bronco fans earnestly support their team on the field, before and during the game. I just don't sense it yet. I don't see my Bronco buddies having anything other than a "Not too worry, BSU is # 6, we'll beat Nevada and then clobber New Mexico and off we go to the Fiesta Bowl" type attidude.

I just wish we all had a 'healthy fear of failure' mind set. This is the ONE GAME, this season where the Broncos really need their fans to support them in the stands - not just wearing blue and orange clown suits, but really being emotionally evocative - during the game - and not just trash talking on computers, in the bars, and around the office water coolers.

The concept (power) of the '12th Man' is not a myth. It could very well be the turning point, as 'grinandbearit' has articulated.

People tend to forget......

Do we all remember the Broncos home record vs. the WAC ? Now let's all calm down.............

Another Overconfident Member of Bronco Nation

See what I mean? Bluemonster is doing it too.

Historical statistics are meaningless - irrelevant.

Every home field winning streak CAN and does eventually come to an end. Just pray it's not on 27 NOV 09.

I also, remember a game a couple of years ago ('07) where BSU barely escaped with its life in an overtime thriller against Nevada - remember that one (BSU 69 - 67 Nevada - 4 OTs - AT Bronco Stadium)? This year's Nevada team is significantly better than the one of several years ago. This year's team still has many players who remember ALMOST beating BSU on the Blue - thus giving them confidence to close the deal in a few days - they are NOT running scared - or IN AWE of historical statistics.

Heck, why even play the game, if it's all based on 'the Broncos home record vs. the WAC' logic.

Time to get a little realistic and not just have a Laize Faire approach of "oh, they always win at Bronco Stadium against WAC opponents, so this next game against Nevada, ain't no big deal".

The Broncos CAN beat Nevada - but ,it's no guaranteed cakewalk.

Not being an alarmist here, just saying the Bronco Players really need a 12th Man pulling for them against Nevada - and not a Bronco Nation that 'expects' a win. Big Difference.

I agree

with VNDL. Nevada has perhaps the best rushing offense seen in college football in some time. A "standing room only" will not only but is probably needed. That said, I would love to be a fly on the wall in the game plan meetings of both teams.

Possible Game Plans

Probably the Nevada game plan will be to:

-- OFFENSE --

1. Pound the rock.

2. Exploit the Secondary with flat and short crossing passes.

3. Reduce turnovers.

4. Reduce penalties.

5. Create 'one-on-one' receiving matchups.

-- DEFENSE --

1. Rip & Strip tackling.

2. Pressure/Infiltrate the pocket.

3. Wear down the Bronco "O" line.

4. Reduce penalties.

Probably the Bronco game plan will be to:

-- OFFENSE --

1. Pound the rock.

2. Exploit blitzing with short crossing route passes.

3. Reduce turnovers.

4. Reduce penalties.

5. Create 'one-on-one' receiving matchups.

6. Exploit weakness of Nevada's strong side secondary and pose/decoy Young as deep threat, over and over.

-- DEFENSE --

1. Rip & Strip tackling.

2. Contain Masoli.

3. Wear down the Pack "O" line.

4. Reduce penalties.

5. Finish/complete tackles after initial contact (wrap up).

6. Reduce YAC by finishing/completing tackles after initial contact with receivers (wrap up).

7. Reduce snapping errors between Center and QB.

8. And, oh yes, did I mention #s 5. and 6.?

Ummmmm Okay....

Personally I think all BSU needs to do is go out there and play their game. You keep their mind and bodies in check enough to really be present and play their game. The Wolfpack is a good team and could challenge us but if we just stick to what we do we'll win.......

Good lord, Reading your post was like hearing my son's Madden game. Ever team needs to pound the rock. Ever team needs to challenge the secondary. Ever team needs to spread the d enough to keep them guessing. Makes me laugh that everyone thanks they can tell you all you need to do to win. The age of coaching done by video game people is killig me.

Justin Wilcox has his work cut out for him this week!!

Wilcox will be seriously tested by Nevada. The Wolfpack have a pile of offensive weapons and Ault will have his team ready. This game will be all about Boise State's defense. If Wilcox has a game plan like he did against Oregon, BSU should be okay. If not........well, be prepared for a major letdown and a birth in some dinky worthless bowl game.

birth?

I've heard of a taxi cab birth, but never a bowl game birth. (Oh, you mean, berth.)

No

he meant berph, that's Sandpoint Idaho talk.