Recommended reading: A great take on Walt Minnick and 'threading the electoral needle'
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As former chief of staff to Gov. Cecil Andrus, Marc Johnson knows a thing or two about how Democratic candidates can win in Idaho.
And that makes his take on Rep. Walt Minnick worth your time. He posted it at his blog earlier in the week. Give it a read.
The president of Gallatin Public Affairs in Boise, Johnson is a student of history. And he really does a nice job of placing Minnick's 2008 victory into context.
"Minnick won the way Democrats have often won in Idaho, by defeating a weak Republican — Bill Sali — who had his own problems keeping the GOP base together. (Former Sen. Frank) Church got his start this way and so did Cecil Andrus and each found a way to keep winning with a consistent appeal to the base and a winning message to the middle.
"A year ago, Minnick was able to knit together a coalition that included an energized Democratic base that came to like Obama, salted with just enough moderate R's who couldn't fancy more Bill Sali, and complemented by independents who typically vote for Republicans unless they find them, as they did Sali, just too far out of the mainstream. This is the very political definition of fragile territory."
Johnson describes it as an ability to "thread the electoral needle," an apt description.
Johnson's takeaway point pretty well defines the election to come. Has Minnick secured his base? Or, with votes on issues such as health care reform, is he alienating his party backers, such as they are, in a conservative district?
That's what makes elections such fun to watch.
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Walt is walking a tightrope
Walt is walking a tightrope and may be selling his soul for nothing. My conservative friends, though they love how Walt is voting and acting in Congress, say they won't vote for him because they think a "true Idaho Republican" needs to be in the seat.
I'm one of the Democrats in Walt's district and was a strong supporter. However, I am now disillusioned with him and don't know how I'll vote or if I'll vote in that race. I've talked to people who've known Walt for a long time and consider him a friend, and they are baffled and disappointed.
I had a similar take
utilizing the same examples. Written three days prior. Hmmmm?
I'm glad someone of Marc's gravitas weighed in on the base problem.
It was either Red State
It was either Red State Rebels or 43rd State Blues where prior to the election I got into a debate with someone about Walt. They said that he was a Republican in Democratic clothing and that he wouldn't represent the values of the party. I argued against that point because I thought I knew who Walt was and what he stood for. Turns out they were right and I was wrong.
The issues today are not the issues of tomorrow
The historical analysis was thought provoking but it hedged on the view of the future. No candidate or observer can predict the issues that will be paramount in the campaign in the post Labor Day period. In a 15 trillion dollar economy in the midst of the great recession and two wars, who can say with any certainty what voters will have on their mind in the final weeks of 2010. Minnick knows that and I believe he is positioning himself more as an independent minded Democrat than someone tied to specific issues. Sure, he has disappointed his base on some votes, but he stands out as someone who is involved in the process and is taking his business background to Congress. There are only 98 veterans in Congress. Walt is one of them. Will that become a major issue? Don't know. Will the final 2/3rds of the stimulus package drop the unemployment rate? Don't know. Will the 2010 legislative session affect voting patterns? Don't know. We are all so wedded to constructing 60 second attack ads in our heads that we've lost sight of how a candidate is positioned overall. And, there will be things totally out of Minnick's control that he must contend with down the home stretch. This is all a great discussion and I hope Walt returns to Congress so Idaho can have some balance in its delegation. He certainly is someone who is not sitting on his hands and letting the world go by. We should be thankful for that.
Agreed
But as I pointed out, in an off year, the multitudes of new voters motivated to vote for Obama, as were evident in the overloaded caucus' statewide, won't likely be there voting for Walt, especially given his repeated trumpeting of his 'independent' stance, which is consistently against Obama's agenda. The teabaggers will never vote for Walt, despite his pandering, and they'll be out in force. Moderates won't have Sali to vote against. Where does Walt make up the difference if the Democratic base has no reason to advocate to their friends, neighbors, and family why Walt should remain? You of all people know this is a numbers game.
I'll vote for him. But I'm not going the extra mile for him cause he's given me little reason to do so. This is the fatal flaw in the blue dog strategy. Its highly ironic that the least secure Democrats think their salvation is voting against the agenda that helped get them there in the first place. And, as you'll no doubt recall, in 1994, when health care reform hit the skids, you, and many other Democrats, found yourselves looking for work. Walt ignores that history at his peril.
Walt just needs one populist issue to champion. HCR with a robust public option seems the one to me. Its popular everywhere its polled. If the highest profile Democrat in the state champions an essential and popular element in the Democratic agenda, he'll provide the necessary leadership in a state party starved for it. Instead, judging by his press releases, he's embarrassed by Democrats. I know it runs against his ideological grain so he can pick another issue. But he better work some pragmatic political savvy into his game plan or he will truly be endangered no matter how much money he raises.
That reminded me I wondered where Capt. Obvious went to
Love the Zen flow in the title.
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Like a midair collision with a tugboat
LMFAO, LaRocco, an elitist
LMFAO, LaRocco, an elitist D.C. lobbyist telling Idahoan’s Minnick is a moderate and independent minded, the reality is that LaRocco is repeating a GOP talking point, nationally the GOP is working to influence Americans perceptions of Democrats as they falsely identify conservative Blue Balls like Minnick as moderates.
What we the people know, Minnick is not a moderate and certainly far from an independent minded old man. Minnick consistently voted with the GOP to maintain the status quo Bush polices ensuring corporate interests supersede any legislation that even thinks about placing people interests first.
Minnick has willfully and proudly opposed every piece of legislation meant to better the live’s of people and our interests, Minnick’s representation of Idaho is seen as obstructionism to the American legislative process, Minnick is no solution he is the problem.
Serious Democrats in Idaho must stop funding the IDP until they remove the (D) from Minnick. IDP excuses of why they can’t remove Minnick from the party only solidifies their weakness as they work against the interests of democratic voters of Idaho, thanks, that 10 year IDP plan is really taken hold.
Let Idaho suffer with a social conservative representative, that’s what Americans have come to expect from this self righteous tater state, give the American people what they want another Loony tune in the House of Representatives, let the entertainment begin.
Democrats don’t waste a vote on Minnick, your vote is worthy more in you pocket at this point, let Minnick pander to tea baggers and rethuglicans to get elected, sit this one out let the social conservatives and conservative republicans fight it for the title, it will be great entertainment
Good grief you people need a lot of help.......
How do Dem's win in Idaho? Two requirements:
1. Get off the Speaker of the House's bus before she drives it over the cliff (only survivors get reelected).
2. Act like a Republican
This isn't hard to understand -- unless you are someone who can't understand the value of common sense!
Why DO you think I'm here?
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Like a midair collision with a tugboat
Minnick a Working Person Democrat
Idaho needs more candidates like Minnick that look out for the working person issues and vote for them. We do not need or want the high hat crew that we usually have from Idaho.
Yeah...cause working people don't want healthcare!
Working people want others to get rich off our misery, and we'll gladly fork over 10-15% a year in increased premiums just so CEO's can get multi-million dollar bonuses. Hell yeah! Working people don't want no other choices for healthcare than what the monopolistic 'free'-market provides...hell yeah!
Phat Cats
FACT: The majority of working people are FAT!
It's hard to argue in favor of better of "health care" for someone who does not truly care about their own health.
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Nice to see you're continuing your poetic prose.
If your work is "misery" it's time to try something new.
Get off your collective farm, and check out our beautiful country. If you do something you like it won't seem like work. It dosen't matter if health insurance is public or private you still are gonna pay. Good luck, comrade.
Them proletariat folk must be enslaved and something about a dog
Oh, yeah...oppressive capitalist running dogs.
Alpo must be suppressed!
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Like a midair collision with a tugboat
Thanks for the 'nay' vote Walt,
wife says Im too good looking to go to health care prison.