Projections put Broncos in Fiesta, Sugar
It appears the two non-BCS teams to the Bowl Championship Series bandwagon is gaining steam.
I’m in danger of getting run over as I still don’t believe a bowl game will take Boise State over USC or a team from the Big Ten.
First, the case for two non-BCS teams.
ESPN: Both of its bowl prognosticators have Boise State in a BCS game — vs. Florida in the Sugar and vs. Iowa in the Fiesta.
CBS Sports: has Boise State in the Fiesta against USC.
• Good news for Idaho fans: The Vandals are in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl in nearly every projection with opponents ranging from Ohio to Iowa State to Air Force.
My projections
Assume the SEC champion (Florida or Alabama) is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champ (Texas) is No. 2 when the final BCS Standings come out on Dec. 6.
Here is how the bowl’s selection order would go:
Sugar
Fiesta
Orange
Fiesta
Sugar
Now let’s fill in the blanks.
Remember the Rose gets the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs, likely the winner of Iowa/Ohio State and Oregon.
And the Orange gets the ACC champ, probably Georgia Tech or Clemson.
Sugar: Alabama/Florida loser
• The Sugar makes a move to secure an SEC team, which brings fans and a Top 5 ranking
Fiesta: Iowa/Ohio State/Penn State/USC
• I think the Fiesta wants a large crowd, so it grabs an eligible Big 10 team. If none of them are eligible, the Fiesta goes for the biggest name on the board.
Orange: USC/Cincinnati
• The Orange would love one of the Big Ten teams, but with them out of the picture, the bowl opts for the biggest name (USC) or the undefeated Bearcats to match against the ACC champion.
Fiesta: TCU
• Now things get interesting, as Cincinnati could be on the board along with TCU and Boise State. Not sure which way the Fiesta wants to go here, but let’s say its grabs undefeated and No. 3 or 4 TCU.
Sugar: Cincinnati
• If Cincinnati hasn’t been selected, then the Bearcats head to New Orleans
My early prediction:
National title: Florida vs. Texas
Sugar: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta; Iowa vs. TCU
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. USC
More bowl news
The WAC has three bowl tie-ins: Humanitarian, New Mexico and Hawaii. In addition, the league has backup agreements with the Poinsettia (San Diego) and GMAC (Mobile, Ala.).
If two Pac-10 teams make the BCS, the Poinsettia is likely to have an opening.
Also, it appears the ACC will not be able to fulfill all of its commitments leaving a spot open in the GMAC Bowl.
The WAC is likely to have four bowl eligible teams — Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho.
Hawaii (3-6) could get bowl eligible, but the Warriors need to defeat New Mexico State, San Jose State, Navy and Wisconsin.
"We have had a history of being able to move teams around and trying to make deals," WAC commissioner Karl Benson said. "We're going to have four very qualified and very deserving teams."
Decision to go for 2
I strongly questioned Petersen’s decision to go for a 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter against Louisiana Tech in Sunday’s newspaper. So I thought I should offer Petersen’s side of the decision.
Situation: Boise State had just scored a touchdown to go up 36-28 with 7:41 remaining against Louisiana Tech.
My thinking: Kick the extra point to give yourself a 9-point lead and make it a two-possession game.
Petersen’s thinking: “I thought we could get it. I wanted to make it a 10-point game and if we didn’t get it and they come down and score and then get 2, we go into overtime.”
What happened: It worked. Quarterback Kellen Moore completed a pass to Tyler Shoemaker giving the Broncos a 38-28 lead.
“It probably wasn’t the smartest thing to do,” Petersen said Monday afternoon.
He said he went against the conversion card that every coach keeps handy — and the Broncos have printed on their game plan each week.
Petersen said part of coaching is going by feel on certain things (when to go for it on fourth down, etc.) and this time it “worked out good.”
Boise State beat Louisiana Tech 45-35.
On GameDay
Petersen on news that ESPN’s College GameDay was not coming to Boise: “It would have been fun. It would have been fun for the town and certainly for our team and for Idaho. It would be a neat event to happen. Hopefully, sooner or later, we’ll get them here.”
GameDay has never been to Boise or any other WAC site.
You can follow Murph's Turf on Twitter.
Brian Murphy is co-author of "Blue Magic: Boise State's Unlikely Journey to a Fiesta Bowl Win." You can click here to purchase the book.
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Please....
re-phrase the Idaho comment....I am from Idaho, so I am an Idaho fan. I hate the Vandollies though.
Syncster: Sounds like a personal problem to me.
No one cares.
The Vandollies would if overinflated. Johnny, Be Good?
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
The media will control where BSU bowls - Murphy's a downer
Believe it or not, the medias perception of where teams should go bowling, matters. Last year, all the projections had the Broncos left out of the BCS, and guess what? The expected and reported, came true. If we get 100% of the media believing that Boise State belongs in a BCS Bowl, the Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowl sure would feel some negativity for passing on an unbeaten BSU team. It's real nice to see than we have national media on board with this effort while our own local reporters are campaigning against it.
HEY MURPHY, if you aren't optimistic, keep it to yourself! Even if you don't think it will happen, you can write about how much they deserve to. You know you'd rather cover the Orange Bowl in Miami than the GMAC Bowl. I fully expect the media to decide if Boise State goes to a BCS game and you are giving ammunition to the cause against them.
hats off to Murph
Remember that the AP backed out of the BCS calculations because they didn't want to be in a position where they affected the news they were reporting on. That in mind, as an AP writer, Murph is doing the right thing by projecting who probably WILL be in the bowl games, and not projecting who SHOULD. That's what being the news is all about.
If you're worried about whether the media will be upset over a BSU snub, give Pat Forde's "BCS manifesto" article a read on espn.com... He devoted nearly half his column space arguing that if BSU gets passed over, it should mean the end of the BCS. The BCS rankings get worse every year as those with vested interests learn more about how to game the system.
They've gotten so good that wins don't even matter anymore: Oregon beat USC, USC beat Ohio State, and they all have two losses, but look at how the rankings came out.
Murphy must not think too
Murphy must not think too highly of BSU if he doesn't pick BSU to play in the National Championship Game, less a BCS bowl. Since he is obviousely a BSU hater then we should probably get him fired then lynch him from the goal post at Bronco Stadium.
Oh, that's right, nobody would even know because the Bronco Stadium is empty on game days!
I think this shows what the rest of the nation thinks of BSU. Yah, they are a good team from a small market who plays really poor competition. They beat up on weak opponents to win, but most of the nation (outside of Boise) would prefer to watch a two loss USC team over an undefeated BSU team.
A TCU/BSU/Cincinatti combination has pitfall written all over it from a television and bowl promoter perspective. None of those teams travel well at all. If BSU can't fill a small stadium for their own home games then how many people can you expect to travel across the country to see them play in a BCS game? The only excuse that you hear from BSU fans is the "economy". If these same people can't afford $30 for a ticket in Boise then how can the afford a couple grand in another state?
Fans
Excuse me, BSU fans made up more than half the attendance when they played Oklahoma. The only tickets left at BSU games are the ones allocated to visitors. Oregon and Idaho fans are the only fan base that support their teams. There will be both BSU and TCU in the BCS if they win out.
OK, let's get this straight!
The ONLY reason the stadium hasn't been packed this season is one thing: ticket prices. Between last season and this season, the prices of all tickets were raised 30%. My in-laws have had season seats for the last several years. They couldn't afford them this year, so they passed. As a student, I get a free ticket, but my wife would be required to pay. We can't afford to go. THAT is why the stadium isn't sold out!
I assure you, if the prices were lowered back to what they were last year, this wouldn't be a problem.
sorry murph
only one bitg ten team is goint ohio state/iowa winner to the rose bowl a 2 loss iowa with the close games they have had they wont get in with a loss to ohio state and if ohio stae loses a 3 loss team aint getting in plus penn state is out i really think 2 non bcs teams will get in ASSUMING they both win out
Bowl projections
Seems like reasonable logic behind your projections, Murph, but those are some horribly uninteresting matchups.
Not to the players. Give the peeps their props, pop!
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
what ever joc doc
like anyone here cares what you think go away VANDAL FAN
Sorry, not a Vandal fan at
Sorry, not a Vandal fan at all, just an objective college football lover!
Liar
You are a liar, SchlocDork. In no way are you objective. You've never made a comment on this forum that was not decidedly anti-Boise State, and that is not being objective. You might want to look up the definition of the word. While doing so, you also might want to look up how to properly spell Cincinnati.
You lie about the stadium being empty on game day, when if fact it has been filled to 97.4% of capacity, a number that will go up after the Idaho and Nevada games. You ignore the fact that this is the first time in at least six years that attendance has not exceeded 100% of capacity. You suggest that $30 tickets are going unsold, which is also untrue. Only the end zone seats are $30 and they are sold out every game. The unsold tickets are in the $55 seating areas.
Considering that you wrote on here that Oregon would destroy Boise State last year, that you wrote on here that Boise State would start the 2009 and 2010 seasons with losses (a prediction you made because you were too ignorant to realize that Boise State opens 2010 with Toledo when you thought it was Virginia Tech), and that you've never said anything nuetral, let alone positive, about the program exposes you for the ignorant liar that you are. Sell it somewhere else.
No GameDay becasue of Idaho
Maybe if Idaho would win a game lately we would have GameDay this week. I think ESPN wanted to come but Idaho didn't do their part.
TELL YOU WHAT THOUGH
nevadas going to be very tough man can they run the ball
Hope ESPN Is Right
Wow - I'd wet my Grampers if BSU went to the Sugar Bowl and played Florida.
Either that or have a heart attack and tip over, spilling the manly Vandal beer I was drinking out of a large styrofoam cup representing 'Buster Bronko's skull.
But I'd quickly recover and be one of the first to book a flight and get tickets to the game and go into a telephone booth and quickly change from Silver and Gold to - hack - sputter - cough - cough - long hack - longer sputter - blue and orange.
A TRUE
State of Idaho fan!! Even though your screen name is VNDL my hats off to you for your post. It is an in state rivalry but when we take on the nation I bleed the schools color also.
Um....
He might be wearing the blue and orange for Florida....
That
has always made me wonder if Florida's in state rivals hate their colors also. Blue and Orange all the way baby, the rainbow of Idaho, not stool cancer black and taking a lot of vitamins Pee Yellow.
Is Manly Vandal beer?
Keystone light?
I've been told
it's the cheapest beer at the store.
Just because...
You don't like Big Bear (whiz) or the ultimate rotgut, Olde English '800'...
Do you want CHEAP, or BAD IN LARGE GLASS BOTTLES?
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Wanted
beer with a little taste and meat to it-stouts or porters favs., ales hefs will do. Give me a break on this watered down, piss tasting light beer crap. manly VDNL beer, yeah after I jizz in it.
to the vandal fans
get ready for the beatdown youre going to recieve had we already lost id give you a great shot at winning not now though this bsu team will be VERY focused they know whats at stake
bsu fan
Feel free to mix in some punctuation once in awhile. You write worse than my 8 yr old.
If they're 8 already you should get on that.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
JocDoc
This poor guy really needs to get a life.
murph must think then
that florida will lose to alabama i think that might happen too
yea your right
jockstrap is a bum but like i said NOONE CARES WHAT HIS PISSANT THINKS LOL
NOBODY. NOONE is the lead singer of Herman's Hermits (Peter)
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Utah Needs to beat TCU
if not then I doubt BSU will make it to the BCS (as long as we stay undefeated)
fiesta bowl
The Fiesta Bowl knows BSU fans will be there. I like the projection of BSU vs Iowa. I hope it works out that way since I already have tickets!
I think the PAC-10 Champ
will be either USC or Arizona. Oregon is going to lose to Arizona in Tucson and could easily lose to the Beavers. Then, if USC runs the tables and beats Arizona they would be PAC-10 champs. I'm pulling for Arizona.
Iowa will lose to Ohio State.
Ohio State will lose to Michigan.
Florida loses to FSU or South Carolina then beats Alabama in SEC championship.
Texas and TCU win out and play for the National Title.
And oh-yeah. BSU loses to Nevada.
I thought they said on ESPN on ABC that the SEC title match...
was already Alabama vs one of the FLAs?
You can fool me some of the time or maybe all but show quality when you fool me?
I know nothing except that I'll be dead someday I guess.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Drinking coffee from bowls
We need to correct some problems before we can be affective in a BCS bowl game. Like the snapper, left hash field goal attempts, red zone consistency, tight-end dropsy’s and forgetting how to tackle in the backfield. Ask Mr. Mathews if you have any question about the last one. In the mean time let’s concentrate on getting snubbed next year for the National Championship.
It's unfortunate...
...but I don't think that BSU will be going to a BCS bowl simply because the money isn't there. Sure, BSU fans will buy plenty of tickets, but USC or Ohio State fans will support much more merchandising. The BCS will satisfy the rules by taking TCU because they have to, but they will leave BSU out because there's bigger money from a bigger program, no matter what the rankings are.
And that's the way that it will be as long as the current system remains in place. Besides, the only game that really matters is the National Championship game. Don't get me wrong, the BCS bowls are prestigious, but since the final rankings are decided by a poll, the end result is that only one bowl game really matters (and given that its participants are selected by a poll, there's even an argument against that!)
So, if the Broncos go to a BCS game, great. If they don't, big deal. The one thing that BSU and the other highly ranked non-BCS teams have shown is that the current system is completely corrupt.
This is true, considering.....
the areas around those 2 schools are more populated than the entire SW Idaho.
dang, we'll probably get the Humanitarian bowl against Idaho..
egad
left hash
Most right footed kickers have trouble hitting goals from left hash. So why do coaches put their kickers on the left hash???
game play determines hash
If the play is on the left side of the field before the kick, the ball is placed on the left hash (same with the right). A coach can try to run a play to the other side, but since it is obvious, it is easier to defend.
ID/BSU humanitarian
egad-----egad, please dont lose any games this year if thats the end result. I would watch one or the other there, but not both.
Murph
I was suprised that you wrote about Boise not being a football town one week and then called for ESPN to come for gameday. Sounds like you are playing both sides. It should be no suprise that ESPN chooses not to come when the hometown paper denounces the team and even scoffs at BSU in a BCS game. I can't imagine a local paper near a big school like USC, Notre Dame, Georgia Oregon or even Washington arguing that the local team is ranked too high all season. Shame on you. It seems in the way of trying to look unbiased and journalistic you have gone too far the other way. No suprise, most jornalists do nowdays.
Murphs Job
His job is to sell papers, and creating controversy has always been how its done. Hes not trying to look unbiased, hes just not a fan of the Broncos. Plus one day the Broncos will lose, probably in a couple years. And he will be there to say I told you so.
He's supposed to be objective so he just throws theories out...
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Please don't call me Sugar.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Or Honey. Or Baby. Call me Confused.
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Like a midair collision with a tugboat
Hey JocDoc
Did you see the stands at the last TCU game? They have a smaller fan base than BSU. BCS promoters are probably praying for TCU to lose, so they can at least salvage some revenue with BSU. Not saying we deserve it more or less, just saying we might be the larger of the two small Non AQ schools. I don't think BCS bowls would cave to the pressure to put in BSU as the at large. Money outways all pressure until someone actually goes to jail. Just a thought, it would be difficult to explain in an anti-trust courtroom how a 9th ranked, two loss team deserves the at large bid over, say, a 5th ranked, undefeated team. That would smell very strongly of profit over fairness.....anti-trust.
Nice try homer
TCU's average home attendance for the 2009 season currently stands at 34,247 fans. Donko Stadium hold 33,500. BSU has only sold out one game this year, their instate rival - the Vandals (not even when a nationally ranked PAC 10 team came to town did they have a sell out).
Nice try Murph, but wrong again - here it is:
Nat. Champ Game = FL vs TX
Sugar = AL vs Cinc
Orange = G.T. vs TCU
Fiesta = USC vs BSU
Rose = Oregon vs Ohio St.