Thinking one year out to the 2010 elections, Idaho Rep. Walt Minnick has made an unenviable Top 10 list.

The first-term lawmaker has made the list of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents, as compiled by Beltway reading staple Roll Call.

Ranking aside, how much is Minnick at risk?

Minnick certainly fits the vulnerability profile explored by Roll Call's Bob Benenson. Minnick is a Democrat who rode his party's gains to win in a conservative congressional district. Nine lawmakers on Benenson's top 10 list are Democrats. Six of them represent districts that supported Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential election — in Minnick's district, McCain won by 26 percentage points.

Writes Benenson: "Minnick’s 2008 win in an Idaho Republican stronghold would have been a shocking upset — had it not been for a deeply flawed incumbent. ... (Rep. Bill Sali's) hard-line conservatism and his reputation as personally abrasive cut deeply into his support among the district’s Republican base."

The National Republican Congressional Committee issued a press release touting Minnick's top 10 ranking, but a couple items in the analysis should be comforting to the Minnick camp. Benenson says Minnick's fiscal conservatism and Second Amendment record "thus far gives him a solid claim on political independence." Minnick also enjoys a big fundraising edge.

According to the Federal Election Commission filings, Minnick has raised $885,844 as of Sept. 30, and has $642,322 on hand, far outstripping the GOP field.
Former Marine and Dirk Kempthorne Senate aide Vaughn Ward has raised $245,877 and has $178,533 on hand; House Majority Caucus Chairman Ken Roberts badly trails in the money race; he raised $62,021 and has $41,661 on hand.

More reading: Here's what veteran Northwest political writer Randy Stapilus says about Ward's fundraising advantage over Roberts.

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