I want to be proven wrong — honest.

But I'm going to predict that come Tuesday, we'll see the lowest turnout this decade for a general election in Boise.

The magic number is 30 percent. That was the turnout in 2007, when Mayor Dave Bieter and City Council incumbents Elaine Clegg, David Eberle and Alan Shealy were re-elected. It also represents the turnout in 2005, the last time Boise had only council races on the ballot.

I'm having a hard time seeing Tuesday's election hitting that 30 percent plateau, because I just don't think this year's council races have created much of a buzz. Boise had a couple of interesting council races in 2005; former Police Chief Jim Tibbs challenged and defeated longtime council member Jerome Mapp, while incumbent Maryanne Jordan trounced a lightning rod of an opponent, conservative activist Brandi Swindell.

The closest Boise has to an interesting race this year is the open election to succeed Tibbs, pitting Dave Litster against TJ Thomson.

The wild card on turnout is the streetcar controversy — and Litster and other conservative candidates have tried to seize on the issue. City Hall certainly didn't defuse the issue this week, voting to award but not fund a much-criticized streetcar "public outreach" contract that could be worth up to $90,000. But I'm not sure how much this issue will drive turnout in an election that has otherwise been short on fireworks.

Here, by the numbers, are other Boise turnout figures for the decade:

• May 2001: In a special election, Boiseans approved the Foothills open space levy, with 36 percent turnout.

• November 2001: Mayor Brent Coles was re-elected; three council races were also on the ballot. Turnout again was 36 percent.

• November 2003: The mayor's job was up for grabs again, nine months after Coles resigned amidst a city spending scandal. Bieter won a four-way race, and turnout was 46.5 percent.

• December 2003: In a special election, Eberle defeated Paula Forney in a council runoff. Turnout was 17.5 percent.

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