Boise State's biggest BCS threat; Is this the Broncos' last trip to Hawaii?
The biggest threat to an undefeated Boise State’s Bowl Championship Series hopes is TCU, which defeated the Broncos 17-16 in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl.
The Horned Frogs are back. Gary Patterson’s squad is 6-0 and faces their biggest challenge of the season Saturday at BYU. ESPN College GameDay is there, providing a boost to the game’s importance and, likely, its winner.
BCS expert Jerry Palm expects the Horned Frogs to eventually overtake Boise State in the polls if both teams remain undefeated.
It could be the second consecutive year in which an undefeated Boise State team was left out of the BCS due to an undefeated Mountain West Conference team.
It is also possible, but not probable, that the BCS could take both TCU and Boise State.
Needless to say, Boise State fans are rooting for BYU on Saturday night.
A couple preview stories for BYU, TCU:
• TCU’s terrific trio fuel Frogs’ bid bust the BCS
• Roles are reversed for BYU, TCU. TCU helped end BYU’s BCS dreams last season.
• Here is a tale of the tape for the Broncos and Horned Frogs.
Boise State vs. TCU
6-0 Record 6-0
No. 4 Current BCS standing No. 8
No. 6 AP poll No. 10
No. 5 Coaches poll No. 7
No. 5 Harris poll No. 8
No. 5 Avg. computer ranking No. 8
No. 11 Oregon Best win No. 41 Clemson
No. 22 Fresno State* 2nd best win No. 54 Virginia
No. 51 Idaho Highest-ranked opponent left No. 16 BYU
No. 87 Nevada 2nd highest-ranked opponent left No. 18 Utah
9** Conference rank 8
* For teams ranked in the top 25 of the BCS Standings, I used their BCS ranking. For teams outside of the top 25, I used their ranking in the Sagarin ratings.
** Sagarin conference ratings, the leagues are behind six BCS conferences and I-A independents.
• I’m sure the conspiracy theorists out there caught this one. The Mountain West and Boise State have the same lawyer on BCS matters — Alan Fishel.
• Soon the Broncos might not have to worry about besting TCU in hypothetical match-ups.
There have been several well-written articles explaining why the spring/summer of 2010 is the best time for the Mountain West Conference to add Boise State. Such timing would allow the Mountain West to take advantage of the Broncos’ success as it relates to the BCS when it comes time to re-evaluate which conferences are worthy of automatic qualification status for the BCS.
I know this: Unless adding Boise State earns the Mountain West an automatic berth in the BCS, then the league won’t add the Broncos. And it is my understanding that the Broncos won’t be able to move the needle enough to make the league an automatic bid conference.
Still this will be a hot topic next spring.
UPDATE: 12:28 p.m. — Honolulu Advertiser sports columnist Ferd Lewis thinks this might be the Broncos' final trip to Aloha Stadium. Boise State is scheduled to play in Hawaii in 2011 as part of the WAC schedule, but if they are in the Mountain West at that time, then ...
• The Kellen Moore for Heisman Trophy campaign seems to be gaining a bit of steam.
Chris Dufresne of the Los Angeles Times named Moore his player of the first half.
Moore is sixth in ESPN.com’s Heisman Watch this week.
His stats are certainly impressive: 16 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and leads the nation in pass efficiency.
Moore would need some huge yardage and touchdown games to bolster his case down the stretch. But as a sophomore, the attention can’t hurt his chances of snagging an invite to New York next year or as a senior in 2011.
• Idaho is getting plenty of national attention. Here is SportsIllustrated.com story on the Vandals’ remarkable turnaround. You’ve got to hand it to coach Robb Akey for his relentless positive approach.
• It is not too late to enter this week’s Name the Score contest. In order to enter, click here. Only guesses posted on the linked blog will be accepted. Please do not post scores on this thread.
You can follow Murph's Turf on Twitter.
Brian Murphy is co-author of "Blue Magic: Boise State's Unlikely Journey to a Fiesta Bowl Win." You can click here to purchase the book.
- Brian Murphy's blog
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I can't understand
Why everyone points out TCU's schedule and two ranked teams left just assuming that they will be undefeated. BSU's odds of going undefeated are sure higher. I think TCU will have 2 losses anyway. TCU will be lucky to win against BYU or Utah, but it is improbable they will win both. BSU's toughest game is idaho..... I think 13-0 is a likely scenario.
I don't think...
they point TCU's schedule out assuming they will be undefeated. I think they are pointing the schedule out to show why they would likely pass BSU in the standing IF they go undefeated. Most people are like you, they feel BSU has a better chance to go undefeated, but that is the point. IF TCU can go undefeated, they should be ranked higher than BSU, because they have a more difficult schedule to go undefeated. So, IF both teams end up undefeated, TCU would and should be ranked higher.
I beg to differ...
Using the numbers that Murphy so obligingly supplied in this very post, at the end of the season we will have the following:
Boise State will have beaten:
#11 Oregon
#22 Fresno State
#51 Idaho
#87 Nevada
and will have won the #9 rated conference (8 if you don't count independents as a conference).
TCU will have beaten:
#16 BYU
#18 Utah
#41 Clemson
#54 Virginia
and will have won the #8 rated conference (7 if you don't count independents as a conference).
By anyone's reasonable measure, that is a push. Neither team can say their accomplishments are significantly better than the other. BSU will have the slightly better signature win. TCU will have the slightly better average win. Neither will have a decent argument to leapfrog the other, and that is the point. If they both win out, they should stay in the exact same relative positions.
What crazy formula are you working with?
Murphy you crazy mormon, use 1 ranking system when you're trying to spew your garbage theories. All you quacks are looking at is the top wins. What defines strength of schedule is the total schedule from top to bottom. So at the end of the year if both teams go undefeated BSU will have beaten teams with a average Sagarin ratings (based on current standings) of 87.5, TCU will have an average of 76.36. TCU will have beaten at least 2 teams with BCS ratings, BSU will have beaten 1. How can anyone argue that BSU's schedule is comparable to TCU? It's not as close to a push as you donkey kissers would like to believe. Prepared to be donkey punched out of a BCS game by the end of the year.
On a side note, why do you guys continue to try to defend BSU's schedule? You all know it's a joke. Wouldn't you prefer to play 1 or 2 big name programs each year instead of trying to defend the toughness(sarchasm) of the WAC? Imagine the hype that a BSU team would have if they took on Nebraska or Miami(FL) in the regular season. You might actually have a chance at a legit BCS championship instead of watching the big boys beat each other up and sliding in because you could whoop up on cupcakes. Kellen Moore might actually get some legitimate consideration for the Heisman as well.
If we played nobody then why post?
Gadfry, you're a dense one...but we'll crack you yet!
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
I think BSU needs to focus
I think BSU needs to focus on winning the WAC before they start worrying about TCU!
Idaho and Nevada both pose a bigger roadblock than TCU!
As Coach Pete Says
"We just take care of the things we can control."
that's funny
considering that they can't seem to get an handle on their poor snaps, can't convert on 3rd downs and can't score in the red zone and have issues on special teams
pretty funny...er...I mean pretty sad
Our REAL tests...
are LaTech and Nevada, Idaho isn't there yet.
Should Idaho beat those 3(Fresno) before playing us, then ya put them in the argument. But, as of right now they've beaten NOONE. Play against a good team first.
Boise St. on the 14th will stave off 1st half rivarly emotion and win easily. Even when it has been close at half it's never close at the end on the blue since 2000.
laughable
This is laughable...it's exactly what the rest of the college football universe is saying about BSU! Bad snaps, red zone problems, all of this in the middle of the season, and poor player character to boot...they are just not there yet...lol. Are you advising playing against one good team per decade? Or is this your prescription for success--survive one team and try to ride that indecisive victory to respect at the end of the season. It's funny...Idaho is sooo conservative--but when it comes to college football welfare they are the first state with their hands out liberally claiming they are marginalized by the system...lol! Please pick us! We swear we'll run the statue of liberty play again! Please please please! It must drive fans crazy pining fo respect while every other top 25 team earns it! Saw both TCU and BSU play today...you're not even close to their talent this year..you're just not there yet :)
A smiley face?
Serious? A smiley face? You should be banned for that. Your life must suck so bad to be posting so late about a team you hate. What a tool. The BCS ranks us 4th. I dont think we need welfare. Good try. Its time to move on.
:)
You are a tool. I am a college football fan. Please learn the difference and then move on :)
Pathetic
Great comeback...college football fan? Apoco, your posts are lame and retarded. You say nothing of substance. The Broncos just blew out a team on the road and have been ranked in the Top 25 for a decade. Ya, thats pretty much college football. You are such a sad little dude coming on a Bronco site to talk down a team ranked in the Top 10. No real hobby? No girlfriend?
But Peter (NOONE) is an old pop star, why beat him?
NOBODY is a word, NO ONE does not compound and in most instances nobody is preferred to no one.
(Lead singer of Herman's Hermits, to end your confusion)
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Idiot
Yeah, N. Illinois on the road, a team that beat Purdue, and Colorado State who beat Nevada and almost beat Utah. that's nobody!! by the way did you see Tulsa lose to mighty mighty UTEP?? If I were BSU, I'd be scared of Hawaii right now, let alone the Vandals. You are a moron
I think...
... he is referring to the fact that the Vandals' 6 victories are over teams with a combined 8-24 record versus FBS competition, and that none of the 6 have a winning record.
Hmmm
Colorado St schedule:
23-17 win AT Colorado
35-20 win vs Nevada (who has the best rushing attack in the nation, and is not the same Nevada that started 0-3)
LOSSES at Idaho, BYU, TCU, and Utah.
Pretty good reason to be 3-4. MUCH harder schedule than bozo
SJSU losses against USC, Utah, Idaho, Fresno, Stanford (In know the spartans aren't exactly a powerhouse, but that is a gnarly schedule)
UW beat USC, lost to LSU, and ND in OT. And anyone who watched them play Idaho knows the Vandals played much better than the score shows, and had to settle for 4 fgs in the red zone (the kind of problem BSU is going through)
Soooooo..... to state 8-24 record of vandals' opponents is irrelevant
Your response...
... is nonsensical. Let's look at the numbers:
Colorado State is currently ranked by Sagarin at #60. You are trying to give Colorado State credit for beating Nevada, because Nevada "is not the same Nevada that started 0-3", and yet the Colorado State game was the second of those 3 losses, so it definitely was the "same Nevada that started 0-3". Also, considering that Colorado followed up their 6 point loss to Colorado State (at a neutral site) with a 16 point loss to TOLEDO, and are currently 2-4, I wouldn't trumpet that game too much, either. Furthermore, they didn't just lose to BYU and TCU, they were thoroughly humiliated by them.
SJSU is ranked by Sagarin at #81. They squeaked by FCS Cal Poly by 10 points, and have lost every other game, most of them in humiliating fashion.
It doesn't matter how good UW is, because the Vandals lost badly to them. The only reason the score was as close as it was (19 point loss) is because Idaho scored a garbage TD with 13 seconds left in the 4th quarter when the game had long since been decided.
Look, the Vandal football team is a great story this year, but don't make it more than it is. They will very likely play in the Humanitarian Bowl this year (all they have to do is beat Utah State to end the year and they will be in), and deservedly so. But it is equally likely that they are going to lose their next four games, and they will likely lose a couple of them by more than 19 points. It's great to be a fan, but you should try to be at least a little objective, too.
HAHAHA
A donkey fan telling me to be objective. HAHAHAHAHA!!!! The whole nation loves the Vandals, and tons of sports announcers, websites, magazines, etc saying they are a GOOD TEAM. And the nation isn't giving BSU the "respect" you think they deserve. I guess you're right though. Bronco Nation's opinion is MUCH more credible than that of everyone else. I STAND CORRECTED!!! You bronco fans obviously cant handle it. You dont get to 6-1 by chance. I won't blame you though. Staring at orange an blue all day would blur anyone's vision
Typical
Can't refute the arguments, so you hurl insults. Pathetic.
And for the record...
I've heard the same "vandals will lose their next 4 games by 19 points" every week. After we beat nmsu, niu, sdsu, csu, sjs, and hawaii, your "vandals will lose this week" statements are getting less credible and original by the minute
Wrong again.
After the CSU game, I am on record saying that the Vandals would start 6-1. You are the kind of "fan" that makes your fellow fans cringe.
Silly Me
I apologize for not following your comments on a daily basis marcsulf. And don't play the victim card with the insults. I just makes you look bad. We both have our arguements. Vandals are 6-1. nothing anyone says can change that. And the chance that we lose our next 4 games is highly unlikely
Ill say it
Full, your an idiot. Read what you wrote again. "The chance that we lose our next 4 games is highly unlikely"...while Bronco fans are saying they wont lose all year...thats the difference in programs and fan base.
Your program has a heartbeat after being on life support for years. Your opinion of your school is so funny. You have no cash, no facilities nothing to really think this isnt just going to crush your hopes in a few weeks. The Broncos have been in the Top 25 for a decade...when has your team been in the Top 25 ever? You are 15 point underdogs this week. Youll lose to Fresno and Boise St by double digits and then youll crawl back in your hole and we wont have to hear your whining. And when the announcement comes in a few months that BSU is going to the Mt West you can cry some more tears. Dont worry, your crappy team will still get to play the mighty Broncos. But youll be the tune up game before we start our BCS conference schedule.
I think I would wait til
I think I would wait til after the Idaho game before you start running your mouth...stranger things have happened...
The last I checked...
The Mt. West was not a BCS conference. Thus why Utah and TCU are considered BCS buster teams along with BSU. So, how is Idaho going to be a tune up game before you start your BCS conference schedule? Also, from what I've heard, it is a LONG shot that BSU would be invited into the Mt. West and also a LONG shot that if they did join the conference the conference would then become a BCS conference. Also, be careful what you wish for. Just ask Coaches Nutt, Koetter, and Hawkins.
Ummm
you just lost one.
Which school was that guy talking about anyway?
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
stats
TCU beating BYU 38-7 is the only stat you should be concerned about.
HMMMM....
Must be a Moscow State fan.
Well put AND didn't Purdue
Well put AND didn't Purdue just upset Ohio State? I think the Broncos should overlook Idaho since Idaho can't play anybody good. It should be a very easy victory over Idaho. Maybe not even practice that week! ;)
Don't count your W's before the match. Avoids this thread.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
fool2292 pops off too much
for a team that has yet to win a meaningful game. the whole nation loves the vandals? get a grip. come to bronco stadium undefeated and you will have huge bragging rights if you beat the broncos at home. lose 1 of your next 3 and the vandals are just another wac team.
hahaha
Man you bronco fans are SO WORRIED. it's great.
After today's games...
... my suspicions about both Idaho and Nevada have been confirmed. Both teams have solid offenses. Nevada has no pass defense, and Idaho (despite early season indications to the contrary) has no run defense. As I expected, Idaho vs Nevada was a shoot-out, but Idaho misfired more than Nevada, and lost by more than 19 points (25 to be exact). Kudos to Idaho for hanging in there for a half. Now get ready for LA Tech. That is Idaho's last reasonable chance at a victory until the finale with Utah State.
Utah State
looked pretty tough I'm having my doubt for UI to beat them. Maybe LA Tech will be their last win.
fool2292 is fool of himself
yep. our undefeated football team is worried. take us through the decision making process that led you to this conclusion.
fool needs help with english
never end a sentence with a preposition. didn't they cover that in freshman english at the little school on the hill in the middle of a wheat field?
End a football game with a proposition, by all means.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
Sheesh. They'll let anyone on this site ;-0
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...
BSU Fan Hoping UI Beats Nevada and Fresno
This is rediculous. I am totally hoping that the only other loss U of I has is on the Blue. Come on folks. It not only boosts Boise State's standings, but it makes the State of Idaho look pretty darn good as well. U Of I has done pretty good this far, and I am totally impressed with Akey. I do think U OF I will give Boise State a good game, but I think Boise State will win if they don't overlook them like they did UC Davis and Tulsa. Hopefully, by that time U of I will move a little farther up the rankings, which can only help the Broncos. Their only loss was to a decent Washington team that beat USC, and that was a close game. U of I has the right to talk a little smack with a little bit of pride. Their team has earned that right for their fans. I don't think that U of I can break the top 25 this year, but I do think they can achieve a ranking somewhere in the 30s if they beat everyone but Boise. I am rooting for them for every game except one.
Being realistic
UI starts to win a couple of games and now the arrogant fans of UI think they can run with anybody. Did they forget they lost to UW and these next three games are against the same caliber teams as UW, not CSU. Yeah it would be nice to see UI come into Boise with a good ranking to help Boise with their quest to bust the BCS but when was the last time UI helped BSU?
laughable part II
Arrogance defines BSU...I am a fan of no team in Idaho. Honestly listen to your comment and tell me that isn't what the rest of the college football universe says about your team...lol. You don't play anybody, you win one good game per year, and now you think you can run with anybody! The hypocrisy of most boarders here is laughable...be as objective as you are asking the rest of the world to be and get over the idea that this fumbling, high snapping, red-zone choking, poor excuse for a BCS contending team has a shot at anything more than a basic bowl. Beating Hawaii meant nothing...TCU beating BYU 38-7 meant more than all of your wins last year and this year combined. Peace.
Seriously?
You honestly think that a win over BYU is more impressive than a win over Oregon? Learn something about football before posting on the topic.
What
are you replying to in my post?? The BCS statement? TCU looked very impressive in their win, very fast to be exact, but that's nothing new to BSU and either team could run with the big dogs. Hope TCU gets by Utah or it's going to be BSU all the way Baby!!
No worries......
Don't even bother to sweat it, vandull fan will go into hiding soon after Boise State gives their over hyped team a lesson in humility. Stupid vandulls crawl out from under their rock thinking their luck has changed- wrong again losers ! Don't you morons get it ? The ONLY team that matters in this state is Boise State.
TCU > Boise
I agree with the following comment that someone wrote into ESPN this morning:
"TCU is a much better team than overrated Boise. TCU has beaten 2 ACC teams and BYU all on the road. Who has Boise defeated? Just one good team, and it was at home. Boise continues to play terrible teams that are 2-5 or 1-6. Last year TCU beat Boise in the Poinsettia Bowl, and both teams have the same main players back. TCU should have started the season ranked higher than Boise. They should be ranked higher than Boise now as well."
TCU BSU ATS
In the debate of "who's better" between TCU and Boise State, why doesn't any one bring up the ATS (Against The Spread) records of BSU and TCU when comparing the two? Sports betting handicaps are set by true experts whose business success depends upon setting the spread to make the outcome as even as possible. If they fail to do this accurately, they won't be in business very long. Games are "handicapped" so that both teams are viewed as equals at the start of the game--regardless of where it's played. It's pretty simple--if the favored team doesn't win by a predetermined number of points, they lose (in the eyes of the handicappers).
With this said, TCU's ATS record is currently 4-3 while BSU's is 5-2. Furthermore, Boise covers the spread by an average of 10.167* PPG (points per game) while TCU covers by an average of 7.167* PPG. However, prior to the their stomping of a highly over-rated BYU team, TCU's cover average was a measly 2.9* PPG. Additionally, BSU's cover average could be MUCH higher; however, they elected to play second team players in the majority of the second half in two games and in the final quarter of at least one other (that I can remember). Also, it appears to me that running up points doesn't seem to be something BSU really cares to do, Instead, it looks to me like that they focus on getting enough points to ensure a win--then they burn out the clock.
Based on performance against the handicap, it is obvious who the better team is--at this point in the season.
*PPG is based on the information I have access to and could vary slightly depending upon the data used. I did not have the line on the games that either team played against FCS teams, so I could not factor this into the PPG cover ave--though I suspect that these games are accountable for one ATS loss each for both teams.
weak
Wow...so who is the best NFL team based on your skewed statistics--lol--I wonder if their distance in relation to the equator might not prove to be a better indicator of who is better. It would, at the very least, be better than avoiding/downplaying the argument that TCU plays four or five ranked teams and BSU just flat-out doesn't play anybody...lol. Funny how all of the "lovers" here are using every weak statistic possible to make a point. The only problem with that is there really isn't a point is there--it's just a weak unprovable season--sigh, it's just too easy.