Welch paper says salmon delayed mortality happens farther out in ocean
Canadian scientist David Welch has moderated his conclusions about the effects of eight dams on the Columbia and Snake rivers on migrating Idaho salmon.
But he still thinks the evidence shows the problems for Idaho’s fish lie in the ocean, not the rivers. Welch has a new peer reviewed study in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences that shows salmon in the Snake and Salmon in the Yakima, which only have to go through four dams, survive the trip to his first acoustic monitor in the ocean at about the same rate.
That suggests, he said, the delayed mortality clearly documented in the Snake River fish, must be happening further out in the ocean. This challenges the prevailing idea that the delayed mortality happens in the estuary and as the fish leave the Columbia because of stress and timing issues from negotiating the dams.
What Welch says the new study demonstrates is that his Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking System, is a reliable tool for studying salmon in the ocean.
Two years ago he said the Idaho fish that have to swim through eight dams survive the first part of the ocean trip as well as Washington salmon that only must negotiate four dams. But scientists questioned whether he had enough sample and also raised questions about how the transmitters placed in larger fish leave smaller, more vulnerable salmon out of the sample.
Welch’s paper in 2008 said survival of salmon migrating from Idaho to the Pacific through the Snake and the Columbia was the same for spring chinook and actually higher for steelhead than salmon migrating out of the Fraser River in British Columbia.
Welch’s research is highly controversial, especially in Canada, but the Bonneville Power Administration has been a major funder of his work.
His latest results are certain to keep his work controversial. His first issue amongst scientists is the small size of his samples.
This time Welch addresses the delayed mortality issue he has not tackled in the past. It gives his work more credibility but still doesn’t overcome the sample issues that are huge. The fish transmitters were installed at the Kooskia hatchery in North Idaho.
“It remains unclear whether the entire size range of these two populations, as well as wild smolts, have similar survival and behavior as the smolts reported here,” Welch and his coauthors wrote.
Overall Welch hypothesizes that since salmon return to their same rivers to spawn there is at least some logic in the idea they may return to the same places in the ocean. His latest study adds to his evidence but still falls short of the proof he continues to seek.
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Remove the lower Snake River dams & recover the salmon
The best available science shows that the best way to recover endangered salmon in the Columbia-Snake River Basin is to remove the four federal dams on the lower Snake River. In his 2008 study, Dr. Welch attempted to compare two completely different river systems -- the Columbia and Fraser -- and drew the erroneous conclusion that somehow the similar mortality levels -- which are the result of a myriad of river variables, including climate change, pollution AND dams -- prove that dams are harmless to juvenile salmon. It's no coincidence his research was funded by BPA. PLOS Biology, the journal that published the study, had to issue an apology to readers for sending out a press release with the inflammatory title: No Dam Difference. While the publication quickly retracted the release, the damage was already done and there was a lot of misleading coverage about the results. But this is no surprise given the intentions of the study to begin with. More about BPA's questionable funding of research can be in the article "Salmon Salvation", published in the May 4, 2009 issue of High Country News: http://www.hcn.org/issues/41.8/salmon-salvation
Blame it on the ocean!
It's no coincidence that Mr. Welch's study finds that salmon delayed mortality is caused by ocean conditions. This is the same argument that Welch's major funder, Bonneville Power Administration, has used over and over again.
There is no question dams on the lower Snake and mainstem Columbia are by far the biggest killer of endangered wild salmon and steelhead, but BPA has consistently downplayed those impacts and instead have attributed both good and bad returns to ocean conditions. Ocean conditions always have been and always will be cyclical and largely beyond our control. The best way to ensure strong salmon returns in variable ocean cycles is to fix their freshwater habitat — and the best science shows us that restoring Columbia-Snake salmon habitat must include the removal of the four lower Snake River dams. With strong actions like dam removal, salmon populations will be able to weather poor ocean cycles in good health and truly thrive when ocean conditions are good.
The "best" science
Prettypants:
Two questions and an observation:
Why is it that the "best" science always seems to be the "science" that agrees with one's personal opinions?
And why should anyone trust anyone named "prettypants" to determine the quality of science used to formulate his or her opinions?
My experience continues to be that the (usually self-proclaimed) "best science available" is that being advertised from agency and university theorists at public expense -- the bureaucrats of the science universe that believe in "consensus" opinions (and funding and peer reviewers). Personally, I've always had problems with scientists not open to challenges, and that make careers being called the "best" by themselves, their fellow trough eaters, and anonymous experts like "prettypants." That's how I buy my soap, not my science.
HORSEHOCKEY
I'm calling it.
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Supporting nothing everywhere all day and very well.
Thank you for hollering.
Is there any chance that Dr. Welch will say whatever BPA wants?
Gotta notice who writes his paycheck. If my income was coming from salmon-killing federal dams, my scientific studies might assert that those dams aren't a problem.
But then, I'd have to hope that nobody noticed how quickly fisheries recover when dams are removed.
Any math student or magic 8 ball knows that...it's mathematical
And moot because the odds are too close to even.
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Supporting nothing everywhere all day and very well.
Thank you for hollering.
Do you know why this is all USELESS?
I saw a story on Fox News Channel about S. Korea's crack martial arts military fighters.
North Korea has NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
Old Tucows pops up again or the cartoon schtick with a guy doing Karate and trying to intimidate the other guy, who just shoots him and goes back to whatever.
On topic because you are the ridiculous karate kids.
It means nothing and even Stewie used a disinto ray on a cheesy folk singer playing for money once in Family Guy.
Please go do useful things like stop people from making fires with fireworks and driving drunk. It's our nation's 233rd birthday Saturday and bankruptcy or world war it beats 2/3 of the other governments I've ever seen anyhow.
Whatup, love it or leave it alone for a few days.
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Supporting nothing everywhere all day and very well.
Thank you for hollering.
Supreme leader has divisions of lawyers massing at their border
Anyway, so I'm told. But relax, a NOK confrontation is coming, it will be controled, subtle and very politically grand, as described by our unbiased celebjournalists. Rest assured, the men and women who do the heavy lifting will be refered to as "grunts", and it will be all ok, coming to you live in your livingroom.
You aren't talking about the Jackson tribute?
Computer fixed, by the way.
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There is no life in Idaho...it is a mirror site on god's server. You were dreaming but it is over. Go to your residence and await our commands and THEN we will restore control...