LESSON ONE: TIMING IS EVERYTHING.  Otter's handling of the gas tax issue  started out looking a lot like Governor Batt's handling of the workmen's comp for farm laborers issue back in the 90s.  In the first year, they both got beat up by their own legislatures (that is, by their own party in the legislature).  Batt spent the intersession "educating" legislators about the issue.  Otter did the same--in fact, went a step further and tried educating the public with studies, meetings around the state, etc.  Let’s not forget, by the end of last summer, the House leadership was on board with this idea.  What happened? "It’s the economy, stupid". Actually, a combination of the economy and the stimulus money really killed the Governor on this issue.

LESSON TWO: DON'T ASK THE QUESTION UNLESS YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER.  When the governor rolled out the veto stamp, he urged Idahoans to call their legislators and tell them its time to fix the roads!  Surely, the Governor did not expect the sort of response that legislators apparently got from emails and phone calls.  Does that mean public opinion is against the Governor on this issue?  Frankly, who knows? But it isn't really about broad, general public opinion; it’s about what side is better organized and holds their opinion more intensely.  Clearly, the Governor miscalculated on this.

LESSON THREE: ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL.  For legislatures and legislators, that is largely true.  For governors, it is not.  Legislatures are simply not built for looking at the big picture or for thinking in the long term—particularly legislatures in which both chambers are elected every two years.  And in bad economic times, short-term, localized concerns prevail with legislators because they elected from local districts.

LESSON FOUR: OVERKILL IS NOT A GOOD NEGOTIATING STRATEGY.  Otter vetoed so many bills he was in danger of developing carpal tunnel syndrome.  Thirty-five bills to make a point was just too much, and not an appropriate response.  As JFAC co-chair Maxine Bell said  "One bill would've sent a message. Two bills would've sent a message. A bill a day would've sent a message.  But this message--the message was lost in the anger."  This may have been the pivotal event.  Whatever public opinion was before this event, I think it really shifted against the governor at this point.

On the other hand, the House's action in ramming through 45 bills, splitting off the House part of JFAC to pass budgets, then putting a sign on the door and leaving town was overkill that I think cost them some of the support they had gained from Otter’s veto overkill.  Key word here: moderation.

LESSON FIVE:  TAKE HALF A LOAF GRACEFULLY.  In one sense, the seeds were sown last year when the Governor did not get what he wanted from the legislature, and basically thumbed his nose at the $68 million they offered, called them weenies (or some such) and told them they might as well get out of town.  As governor, you can chide individual legislators in private, but you do this sort of thing in public and it always comes back to bite you in the butt.

LESSON SIX:  ONE PARTY GOVERNMENT SUCKS.  I don't care if we are talking about one-party Democratic dominance in Massachusetts or one-party Republican dominance in Idaho. When one group is so big and in power for so long, the political fights are usually between personalities or between ideological factions. And the faction part is fought out in the primary, where a small group of party enthusiasts have an inordinate amount of power over outcomes.  The general public doesn’t have much say, but has to live with the outcome. 

LESSON SEVEN:  A GOVERNMENTAL SYSTEM OF SEPARATION OF POWERS IS MESSY.  We would never have seen this happen under a parliamentary system of government.  That’s the good and bad of our system.  It is easy to forget, in the heat of the moment and the specific issue and personalities at play, that the American system is best when legislatures can stand up to an executive.  We may not like the way it plays out in specific situations, but as a general principle I prefer an independent legislature over one that is just a rubber stamp for the executive branch.

LESSON EIGHT: BEWARE OF HUBRIS.  The ancient Greeks understood that hubris is part of the human condition and often a source of human tragedy. Usually defined as “arrogance or excessive pride,” it basically means “too big for your britches”.  Politicians are especially susceptible to hubris, and they ALWAYS get taken down by it at some point.  See Tom DeLay and Elliot Spitzer for recent examples.  There is a group of mostly youngish chaps in the Idaho House who had a lot to do with the gas tax outcome, and they are feeling pretty sure of themselves right now.  They will, at some point, pay the price of hubris. We all do.

Gary Moncrief
Professor of Political Science and a University Foundation Research Scholar at Boise State University