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National money in the 1st Congressional District race
Submitted by Kevin Richert on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 9:14am.
The national Democratic Party is throwing some money into ads targeting 1st Congressional District Rep. Bill Sali.
Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza wrote Monday about the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee buys in 20 House races.
The $349,000 ad buy in the 1st District is the smallest in the bunch, yet it's significant nonetheless. In the 1st District's open race two years ago, Democrat Larry Grant received little backing from the DCCC. This year's Democratic opponent, Walt Minnick, is having no such trouble.
Anti-Sali press releases are pretty much a freebie. But with national Democrats backing their words with actual money, this puts more pressure on Sali's fund-raisers.
More reading: In a regional perspective, Randy Stapilus says the DCCC money hands Minnick a 6-to-1 advantage in available campaign dollars.
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Not surprising
The DCCC treated Grant badly, but he was non-candidate, albeit a nice man.
Minnick is a great candidate for the Dems and certainly up to the job. He may well surpass a 10-1 campaign dollar advantage. This is what the Dems needed if they wish to secure the seat - a good candidate and sufficient over-funding to balance incumbancy and Party.
Cynics often say in Idaho that all you need is an "R" by your name and you'll win. Typically this comes after minimalist Dem candidates were defeated in non-campaigns. Idaho voters are certainly conservative as a class, but have shown they will vote the person too.
This is a great race with a strong conservative R incumbant and a strong well-funded challenger. This one is fun to watch!
My money's on...
Minnick. I don't know if it is an upset or not - but I do know that the only people who like Sali are the ones who voted for him....and he has done their bidding.
Minnick is easier to like but if you are an Idaho conservative know that he will vote "Pelosi" more than he will vote "Sali." Something to think about.
Bet they double down
I would think when this one is over the DCCC will be close to $800,000 in this race. Minnick was recruited to run instead of DCCC backing Larry Grant this time around. And if Mr. Minnick used his well-established business acumen he probably garnered a pretty substantial commitment from DCCC. And I'm not being cynical in noting that this healthy funding level will level the playing field against the reflexive Idaho voters who default to vote for the person with an R next to their name. It's happened so many times since 1990 it's a demographic imperative.