Today I will finish up my fearless predictions by looking at any other races that might be a little bit interesting.

U.S. Senate: Jim Risch vs. the Seven Dwarfs

This race is to fill the stall, I mean shoes, of Larry Craig. Risch has all of the endorsements, contributions and name recognition, though he is no Snow White. Risch’s only problem is a lot people don’t like him. If there was only one opponent, he or she might have a chance but the anti-Risch votes are going to be splintered and the lieutenant governor should win rather easily. The most credible opponent is Scott Syme but I don’t think he can overcome all the advantages of Risch, who is almost the incumbent in this race.

U.S. Representative District 1: Bill Sali vs. Matthew Salisbury

Bill Sali won his primary in 2006 because the large number of contenders split up the vote. Remember, Sali only received less than 26% of the vote in the primary and did not even get a majority in the general election. Sali is a better candidate this year as he has mended fences with many party leaders, though I don’t think he and Bruce Newcomb are bridge partners. Sali does not have a lot of money this time but Salisbury is just not going to make. He has no money and little name recognition. There are not enough anti-Sali votes out there for someone no one has heard of to beat him. Neither local paper endorsed either candidate. That tells you something. Look for Sali to win the primary but Walt Minnick has a real shot to beat him in the fall.

Idaho Supreme Court Justice: Joel Horton vs. John Bradbury

If you have been reading this blog, you know I do not like judiciary elections. This is one of the strangest of all of the races. The candidates can’t talk about the issues so they talk about generalities and structural changes to the court system that are not completely under the control of the justices. There is a lot of money in this race. Bradbury has contributed $125,000 of his own money to his campaign and has spent almost all of it. Horton has $100,000 with $40,000 from his own pocket. I guess I am too poor to be a judge. The Statesman endorsed Bradbury, but Horton seems to have the support of the attorneys in town so that probably puts him over the top.

U.S. President: John McCain vs. Ron Paul

So you are thinking LiCalzi has lost it since McCain has this locked up already and you are right on both counts but the presidential vote will count. Idaho will be choosing 26 delegates to the GOP national convention based upon the vote in this primary (the Democrats chose their delegates at the caucus in February; another reason not to vote in the Democratic primary). Though McCain has locked up the nomination, Paul can get delegates who may cause a commotion at the convention. With enough delegates, Paul probably will have to get a speaking role and maybe a say on some platform language. He needs just 5 percent of the vote to get a delegate, and if Canyon County is any indication, Paul will do well in Idaho. All you revolutionaries can make a difference and cause McCain a real headache.

GOP Precinct Committeeman/woman

Who cares who the local organization person for the party is? Many people do. The committeemen and women choose the delegates to the state convention. The state convention will decide the delegates to the national convention not chosen in the primary, elect a state party chair and approve a platform for the party. It seems a number of Ron Paul supporters are trying to covertly infiltrate the convention and cause havoc. You also have a fight coming up on support for the closed primary and a contentious election for state party chair. These elections may have a large effect on the GOP state organization for this election and beyond.

Make sure to tune into KIVI Today’s Channel 6 on election night at 9 p.m. for the results of all the races and even more analysis.

Take time this holiday weekend to remember the brave men and women who gave their lives so that we may have the privilege to vote in elections. They are the true reason for this holiday weekend.

Go Yotes.

Dr. Jasper M. LiCalzi
Professor
Department of Political Economy
The College of Idaho