It seems like everyone on the blogosphere is making lists of primary races to watch (See Randy Stapulis at Ridenbaugh Press and Nathaniel Hoffman at PaleoMedia), so I figured I would join them.

I am splitting them up into three categories (state legislature, county, and national and miscellaneous), dividing Canyon and Ada County state legislative races into two separate blogs. All of the races are in the Republican primary so there is little reason to vote in the Democratic primary. So all of you Democrats and Independents make sure to vote in the GOP primary and make Rod Beck’s head explode. Also, I will make predictions, unlike other pundits, because I am not afraid to be wrong. No guts, no glory. So, let’s look at state legislative races in Canyon County.

House District 10 A: Curtis Bowers vs. Pat Takasugi

This is my district, which consists of Caldwell, Greenleaf and Wilder. Bowers was appointed by Otter over Takasugi so this is sort of a grudge match. Bowers is very popular among the anti-statism crowd in Canyon County but is a lightning rod for controversy. Takasugi is not campaigning due to surgery so this race is hard to figure. Takasugi has been endorsed by the Statesman and the Press Tribune. I predict Bowers in a close race due to the stronger passion of his followers and some negative feelings some people have against Takasugi. More Democrats and Independents voting in this primary would help Takasugi but there are not many of them in this district. Either winner will have a tough Democratic competitor (if that is possible in Canyon County) in Mike Warwick in the fall.

House District 11A: Steven Thayn vs. Gary Bauer vs. Matt Beebe

This district includes the northern portion of Canyon County including Notus and Parma and all of Gem County. Thayn is the incumbent having beaten Kathy Skippen in the 2006 primary. Thayn believes in family values as the means to solve almost all problems in society. He has been criticized for not being practical though at a candidate forum put on by the Press Tribune Thayn was the most knowledgeable candidate there. Bauer was the representative in 11B until he lost to Carlos Bilbao in 2004 and then again in 2006. He doesn’t seem to have gotten the message. Beebe is stepping down as Canyon County Commissioner to go part time into the state house. Beebe is running as the competent alternative but he is not flashy and not well known in Gem County. Thayn was endorsed by the Press Tribune and Beebe by the Statesman. I have to go with the incumbent Thayn as any anti-Thayn sentiment will be divided between his two opponents.

House District 12A: Robert Schaefer vs. Roberto Olvera

The district is basically all of Nampa though it doesn’t follow the city limits exactly. Robert Schaefer has been in the state house forever (OK, it isn’t forever but 24 years is a long time). Schaefer is from a different generation of legislators much like Dolores Crow, Atwell Parry and Jerry Thorne. He is anti-tax and really against almost everything the state government does. This was popular fifteen years ago but things may be changing. Olvera (The College of Idaho 2004) hasn’t been involved with politics before, is a social worker and was in diapers when Schaefer was first elected. He is a bright guy whose view of state government is conservative but more progressive than Schaefer. Olvera has been endorsed by both the Press Tribune and Statesman. Most people figure the incumbent will win but I think Olvera will “shock the world” with an upset. Even if Schaefer wins, I doubt he runs again and Olvera will be well positioned for 2010.

Tomorrow, state legislative races in Ada County.

Go Yotes.

Dr. Jasper M. LiCalzi
Professor
Department of Political Economy
The College of Idaho