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Who should I vote for?
Submitted by Jasper LiCalzi on Mon, 05/12/2008 - 1:08pm.
Why people vote for certain candidates has been a subject of research probably ever since there has been voting. Though everyone and every race are different, there are certain decision criteria that have been discovered as being most important to voters. Name recognition is the best predictor of voting behavior with incumbency, which is highly correlated with name recognition, following closely behind. Party identification is also a very good predictor of how someone will vote in the general election. When voters are asked about how they will make a decision, they usually cite congruence with the candidate on the issues. Studies have shown that agreement on the issues is not really a good predictor and I would argue it is not a very good criterion for voters to use.
Though voters will state they will vote for a candidate they agree with on the issues, that doesn’t often hold up. When voters are asked for their preference of a candidate and separately their preference on the issues in a blind study, the two don’t always match up. You can do this yourself on the internet with the current presidential election at a number of sites such as SelectSmart.com and VAJoe.com. You may be surprised which candidate you agree with on most of the issues. The reason this occurs is because either voters don’t know the positions of the candidates on the issues (due to ignorance, poor media coverage or obfuscation by the candidates) or they have used another criterion to make their decision yet have told pollster they made their decision based upon the issue because most voters feel that is the “correct” answer. Regardless, voters should not choose, or attempt to choose a candidate, based upon the agreement on the issues.
No one agrees with any candidate on every issue. That is why there are many people who “don’t like any one” or “think all the candidates are wrong” or act like Lou Dobbs and say “Vote Independent” (though I don’t know which candidates he is talking about). Trying to find the perfect candidate on the issues often leads to frustration, disenchantment with the system and abstention from the process. One has to make compromises if the issue approach is to be used. How do you compromise? One would have to at least rank the issues in importance. A lot of research and soul searching is needed, neither of which most people want to do.
Another problem with the issue congruence method is that issues change. Who knew in 2000 that the next president would be dealing with a terrorist attack on American soil? Foreign policy was barely touched on during the 2000 presidential campaign. Examine the 2008 state legislative session. When it began, there were many ambitious proposals based upon the assumed economic predictions. Within a few weeks of the beginning of the session, the economic forecasts had changed and different decisions had to be made. What issues will our next president have to deal with in the next four years? How about the U.S. Senator we are electing who will be in office for six years? Due to the ambiguity of future policy issues, I support choosing candidates based upon his or her personal qualities.
I believe the best way to choose a candidate is by what you know about their character, experiences and other personal qualities. Based upon these traits, one can better predict how the candidate will act in office. Also, the qualities necessary for success depends upon the position. An executive position needs different traits than a legislator. I like to ask: How will this person stand up to the demands of this specific position? It is not a perfect formula because one can never know a candidate’s complete personality, though life experiences are a good predictor. (See the work of James David Barber on Presidential Personalities).
Who should you vote for? I vote based upon the personal qualities of the person and don’t worry if I disagree with the candidate on some or even many of the issues. A good person will usually make the right decisions.
(This will be my last blog for a short while. I have to attend to some College business.)
Go Yotes.
Dr. Jasper M. LiCalzi
Professor
Department of Political Economy
The College of Idaho
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I already did.
Since I have no idea who most of them are anymore I have to throw mental darts. Still no D's in the Oregon primary most of what matters and the ones that did show will probably get clobbered. Vote for the lone conteastants for judge, water board etc. and move on to the BIG FISHIES.
Have fun with finals. Remember flunkies make some of the best trolls.
I disagree, some...
I don't like the idea of voting for a politician based on personal characteristics, like the ones you've described above, because it tends to favor older candidates. They've held public office longer, and there is generally more known about them.
Also, character voting is usually code for Christian Family Values voting. I know you didn't mean it that way, but that's what most people mean when they say that.
I also think that the "issues" are important, but not in the way that most people think. I think you can do an "issues" vote much more closely aligned with the type of criteria you've proposed here, Licalzi: Not necessarily pinning down all the issues and agreeing, but having the same general mindset. I don't agree with Obama on a few of the issues, but he has the general progressive mindset that I approve of.
Well said kstiens
I cannot imagine voting for anyone who would not represent my desires 70-80% of the time. And there is typically a deal breaker issue or two - whether it be immigration, war, health care, abortion, etc. Whatever my deal breaker issues I would have to be confident when I voted that I was sending my voice to office on that issue.
Hot button issues are important
Research suggests we tend toward semi-lexicographic preferencing -- that is, we have 1 or 2 hot button issues that drive our decision... mostly. One major problem is that the neuromarketers have shown that we don't always know our own hot buttons as well as we think, LOL.
There's also evidence to support Dr. LiCalzi that we pick a candidate, then rationalize the choice (e.g., pick & choose the issues you focus on).
He also alludes to research that a Governor has better odds for President than a Senator. Not relevant here, but... the taller candidate usually wins the White House & most Presidential candidates (and winners) are left-handed or ambidextrous [McCain & Obama are tall & ambidextrous; Hillary is...] Mid-range voice pitch is a lesser predictor.
However, the single best predictor is that for President & Governors, the candidate who scores higher on Selgman's measure of learned optimism [LO] almost always wins. {The LO measure is narrowly defined and is strongly associated with personal resiliency; on average, Libertarians score as most optimistic, followed by R's, then D's tilt pessimistic [Bill Clinton a big exception] then Greens who tend to score as very pessimistic - again by this LO measure [it is not your usual definition that focuses only on resilience to adversity.
p.s. predicting how vote can indeed be tough - in school we got abused by this evil data - in our large sample,
The poor leaned D
Blacks leaned heavily D
Catholics leaned D, but...
Poor black Catholics? Voted solidly R .... LOL
Darned humans... messy! LOL
This time in the voting
This time in the voting booth it is very unique, never seen in America, so throw out your old school charts and thoughts, more people than ever are registered and ready to exercise there vote in mass, there decision to vote will be more of the same or a new future.
The conservative movement has destroyed our economic base, declared open war on the middle and working classes, thwarted the aspirations of the intellectual and professional elites, dismantled the basic processes and functions of democracy, failed to prepare us for the future, overseen the collapse of our economy, and misused police and military force so inconsistently that Americans are losing respect for government. (Is that what you call republican optimism)
The American middle class built on New Deal investments in education, housing, infrastructure, and health care, produced a very prolonged period of objective economic and social development. People were optimistic, generations of growing prosperity raised their expectations that their children would do even better.
Conservative policies have opened the wealth gap to almost depression levels, put workers at the mercy of their employers and deprived the working middle classes of education, home ownership, health care, capital,and their expectations of a better future for their kids.
You can only get away with blaming this on gays and Mexicans for so long before people get wise to the game. The primaries are making clear all Americans are getting wise.
In addition the irrational ineptitude in deploying government forces leads to public contempt for the power of the state, and leads the governed to withdraw their consent, eventually it raises people's determination to stand together to oppose state power.
Revolution becomes necessary when the ruling classes fail in their duty to lead
Yea, some people will never understand why we had
the American Revolution & will always think more government is the best thing since canned beer. Best way to keep government honest is to keep pointing out the lies, lawmakers turned lawbreakers, & follow the money. I've seen enough crooked poiliticians to know you have to keep after them, crime is crime.
To suggest it's only people with little social influence breaking the law & should be held accountable is naive & foolish. Laws broken by our representatives have more impact, {war in Iraq} than some guy with strike three/life in prison for stealing a loaf of bread. The failing economy, thousands dead, $9 trillion debt though not real, aren't at all due to a war which was to only cost $50 billion in which major fighting was over years & billions of $ ago which was to be paid for with Iraq's oil?
Are lawmakers while human, any different than the average America? Greed doesn't discriminate, doesn't matter how much $ the rich have, they always want more & they'll do anything to anybody to get it. It's an addiction like gambling, sex, drugs, or anything else. Some are foolish enough to believe all the spin, some are not.
That's why I suggest full finacial disclosure by all our representaives. Don't allow the opportunity to hide anything & they will be less likely to accept $ from those who would benefit from a politican in their pocket. Campaign finance is a problem, just because we only see a few of our representatives caught up in scandals doesn't mean there aren't more caught up in illegal ativity. Drunk drivers, what percentage of drunk drivers on the road are actually arrested? Is it fair to compare drunk drivers to poiticians? Ask what's his name, Edward Kennedy?
Republican, democrat, six one way, half dozen the other, not much difference. The two controlling parties & campaign finance are the best weapon terrorist have & they're using it to their full advanatge. If our representatives were all honest, representing US taxpayers, not contributors they would have better approval ratings & less media attention. They change policy every or every other election, back & forth, losing ground & wasting $. How about keeping in place some policies or programs that have been proven to work, no matter who or which party is in office?
Social Security might be an example while illegal immigration promoted by our representatives has been a major factor. What amount of damage has illegal immigration done to Social Security & health care in America? Did campaign finance have anything to do with it while breaking unions? Spin it, let's hear it.
We're impressing the chicks.
Are you guys answering the question or impressing chicks?
HA HA HA HA
We come from FRANCE!
simple...
A REPUBLICAN!
I hope he's aware that telling somebody who to vote for...
is a crime in foreignoregon.
District 21 Candidates are stupidly wasteful!
I see no Democrat running for local offices, nor do I see any independent running there. Thus these Republicans already have the positions. Why on earth are they constantly wasting their dollars and sending out their ads, both large and multicolored to the public. If their willing to waste their own money then they will waste our money even more so.
"Why on earth"
Not "stupid" - smart.
Campaigning is about gaining support of the people, not just defeating an opponent. You campaign when you have an opponent and when you do not.
It is the support of the people who know their representative that makes a difference during the legislative session.
Additionally, to not campaign and just act like "this baby is mine," is a sign of arrogance...and we have that aplenty already.
Hi mtomlin
In answer to your statement, "Additionally, to not campaign and just act like "this baby is mine," is a sign of arrogance...and we have that aplenty already." Sending out mass mailings after mass mailings is over doing it by some big bucks. It is arrogantly wasteful particularly when they know "This baby is mine!" Of course all need to keep their name "out there"! It is the NUMBER of mass mailings I'm objecting to.
Understand politics
The problem is that if you do not fund-raise every election cycle then you lose your contacts and ability to do so.
And as you fund raise you must (should) spend most of it. Again, the mass mailings are to make them "players." Many politicians are running for their next office by the way they campaign for their current one - or if not a next office a committee appointment, etc.
But to your specific point, how many are too many? You probably would feel the same if you had received 10% fewer, or 20% fewer.
I've received two unneeded and badly written mailings from the IRS telling me what I already knew regarding my stimulus check - now that is a waste.
I think we're all begnning to understand politics very well.
Some of those campaign contributions get passed around to others of the same party, strenghten the party. One of these uncontested can share the wealth so that one of the party who may not have the support can still afford to play the game when they may not have the backing/contributions.
We understand alright, it isn't about America or the American people, it's about the party in control. Now that Bush is just about gone I see he's not having his way as Congress is finally showing some signs of life, intelligence. Wonder where we'd be economically if they had done so when Bush first took office? Or didn't demcoracts didn't have control of Congress when Bush was appointed the first time.
Did I ever say that this two party joke is a lot like the WWF? We all know what a joke it is but we still pay to see the show. Unfortunatley we can't just stay home, & save the money when it comes to government, they spend our money either way. Vote, yes vote in elections where ballots can't even be counted correctly, chads throw them out, or what ever crooked as a dog's hind leg political games sway the decision. How strange is it to start wars promoting democracy when we can't even have an honest election here in America.
The IRS needs to be put away, it's like to many government agencies & offices, job security wasting tax $ while accomplishing negative results in far too many areas. USDA, FDA, Homeland Security, INS, & many more could be getting a lot more done for the money.
Who were the judges that appointed Bush in the 2000 election? For the life of me I can't recall. I really need to look that up & see where they had their investments.
Full finacial disclosure needs to go beyond our representatives to supreme court, Pentagon, & many other areas which might reveal interesting facts & reasons for war or why some bills are passed in Congress, military contracts handed out, & who knows what all. Not in America where we're nothing but honest & good, sends chills just suggesting there could be anything but honorable actions by our leaders. Bush & McCain will root out those evil doers, they're already starting to suggest war is so much easier & quicker than negotiating with republican spin, the wheel of misfortune.
Can anybody believe these guys are already starting this crap? The American public should make a stand & let these guys know we have a war & an economy to worry about & their games are costing US more than just $! How about some leadership? I wouldn't waste a vote on anybody so determined to get into office that they forget what the real problems America is faced with that they would start these games & put party ahead of country. Obama & democrats should tell these two clowns to quit picking & step their politics up to real world issues.
The republican party has US in a war with no end in sight, driving our economy south & all they're worried about is staying in office? We've had 7&1/2 years of their failure & they're suggesting negotiating is wrong, war is the only answer? Bush's actions/words say it all, the problem isn't what Obama & democrats would do, it's what Bush & the repubilcans have done! McCain has come out with all his big plans, I'll cut the article out & save it so that if he is elected we can see how close to reality the republican's dreams are after a couple years of reality.
Check the news stories and you'll learn more...
The software program they used this year was probably as bad as the last one and a small number of payments went to the wrong place. more of them aren't the corect amount and will be corrected later and those that paid a fee to prepare and direct deposited are causing a glitch that means CHECKS IN THE MAIL.
AP story I saw on Yahoo! of course.
mtomlin in unerstanding politics
"Many politicians are running for their next office by the way they campaign for their current one - or if not a next office a committee appointment, etc." Is a reasonable and realistic M.O. Thanks, but I would not be offended by two to three different mailings plus their road signs. They have proved that they can overspend. I'm appalled they'll not get my vote.
"overspend"
So if all candidates in your view "overspent," you would stay home and never vote for anyone? How exactly does that improve the process?
I didn't say that I wouldn't vote!
Neither will I vote for those that overspent nor those that support those who overspend. Meaning any endorsements. Watch who you endorse. Both McCain and Obama have had endorsement problems haunting them. And both preachers are haunted by them. It's time for a change. But getting back to the local scene, Since these cretins are running without opposition they'll get in but minus my vote.
"Cretins?"
How do you know they all have congenital thyroid deficiency? And why is it their fault they are running without opposition?
I still don't understand the rule on "overspent?" Just how much is okay-spent, and when does it become "overspent?"
Wanton Spending!
Alright, they don't have a congenital problem, just a mental deficiency or stupidity.
It is the fault of the local citizenry. Is it not obvious, that they have saturated their area with name recognition? Sending fifteen mailers to the same address is over saturation, meaning excess. Just when does spending become over-spending is when the public percieves it. If I were a politian, I want name recognition of course. But wanton spending to proclaim one's wants to balance the budget, keep taxes low shows the exact opposite.
"...the fault of the local citizenry."
I guess you are the local citizenry rep.
I think your dots don't connect. What is obvious to me is that spending personal (donated) money on a platform to reduce tax burdens does make sense, much more so than spending tax dollars to proclaim reducing taxes.
The real question is how many of these overspenders would you have voted for if they had not overspent? Just list the candidates that you were solidly supporting who lost your vote due to their mailers and I will make certain they get the message.
Ya didn't sell me your point of view.
Nope, not at all. I'm just one of many of the local citizenry. What is obvious to me as well, is that you justify wastefull spending. The use of tv or radio spots is necessary as are the newspapers. The use of signage along the highways great. Candidate WebPages fantastic. PAC and Party ads endorsing their candidates are fine. For the cadidate that doesn't have these group endorsements then of course he has to get that name and face recognition.
The constant pile of mailings from the same candidates for uncontested positions is redundant and wasteful.
I hope the public votes for the causes of a candidate rather than for how big a pot he spend
Didn't answer the question
So again, which candidates that you supported before the over-mailing are you now voting against because of it? Or are you talking about candidates who never had your support from the beginning?
I'm guessing too that you do not know "the rule of 7" in campaign advertising. You also seem to think the mailings are about getting name and face recognition. Once the race is likely won, that becomes a very minor purpose in the mailings.
Vote for whomever the new socialist guy Fred likes!
We'll be chained to a voting booth all day deciding everything.
Hay! We gotta keep our morons, cretins and simple idiots...
straight here before they all blur into George W.
If you can find a popular write-in, I suggest you push harder...
Microsoft has over 80% of the OS market or did and they still provide incentives like an exclusive logo/badge to display in ads and on the PC...that is advertising also.
Jasper I am surprised though...
Channel 6 spent over 20 seconds mentioning this blog entry and only two responses? Tell them to work harder.
If you bring me some aspartame/Splenda and hamburger and bread
I'll vote for you, K?
Update: Mom and Dad did but they aren't running unless you count off for a vacation soon.