Dead candidate walking
Hillary Clinton is a zombie candidate. She is dead but will not face this reality. She cannot win the nomination under any reasonable circumstances but will not pull out of the race. I am not calling for her to drop out; that is a decision that should be based upon many criteria in addition to electability. My contention is simply, without the intercession of a political asteroid hitting Obama, Hillary Clinton cannot win the Democratic nomination.
Donning my empirical hat: let’s look at the numbers. Based upon the delegate totals of the various news organizations (and they are all relatively close), Hillary Clinton would need to win 60% of all the remaining delegates (not vote, delegates) to get the requisite number needed for the nomination (this does not include Michigan or Florida). This is not just pledged, add-on, elected or any sort chosen in primaries and caucuses. She would also have to win 60% of the remaining superdelegates who have not declared. Of the remaining approximately 336 superdelegates, Clinton would need 195. In other words, she would need 54 more of the remaining superdelegates than Obama.
Now, let’s look at the terrain from another angle. Instead of assuming Clinton wins 60% of the delegates in every state, we can evaluate the states more systematically. Looking at the polls and demographics of the remaining states, we can allocate states with some more precision. Let’s assume Clinton wins Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky; Obama wins North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota; and they split Indiana, Guam and Puerto Rico. If the winner of the preceding states gets 55% of the delegates from the state and the loser the remainder, we can again evaluate Clinton’s superdelegate requirements for the nomination. Under this scenario, which I believe is reasonable for both candidates, Clinton would need 75% of the remaining superdelegates. That means she would need 252 while Obama would only get 84, a difference of 168 delegates.
Based upon prior states, the first scenario is illogical. Under the Democratic Party’s proportional allocation system for pledged/elected delegates, it is very unlikely for Clinton to win 60% of the delegates from every state. From an electoral basis, the second scenario is more likely but seemingly unlikely from the standpoint of the superdelegates. There is no clear manner for the numbers to add up to Clinton winning the nomination.
The Clinton campaign lately has been suggesting that if she wins the popular vote (which is also highly unlikely without including Michigan and Florida) or if she has won the more states that are significant to the Electoral College, the superdelegates will move to her. Again, will 75% of the superdelegates move to her based upon such fractured logic? Since Super Tuesday, Obama has greatly increased his number of superdelegates while Clinton has actually lost in her number. Are all those superdelegates left really going to jump to the Clinton camp?
The Wright pastor and “bitter” controversies were weathered by the Obama campaign with little damage, despite what Republicans like O’Reilly and Hannity think, so Obama should be able to withstand just about any other scandal that might be out in cyberland. Hillary Clinton and her campaign can only hope that Barack Obama was Client Number 8 with Emperors Club VIP.
Go Yotes.
Dr. Jasper M. LiCalzi
Professor
Department of Political Economy
The College of Idaho
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Amy P on SNL is clearly a visionary.
I wonder
I think its true that Hillary stands little chance of winning, but that doesn't give me nearly the certainty that it gives the Doc. It's entirely reasonable that any number of x-factors could mess it all up. Look at Dean in 2004. All was set, and he was polling well in Iowa, and then it all collapsed. The Scream, which granted wouldn't have happened had he won that primary, had a far worse effect than it should have due to his loss. Obama is now an embattled candidate. It's true he probably doesn't have any significant skeletons in his closet, but a lot of small skeletons can be just as good (I thought about using a more colorful metaphor, but decided against).
duh!
She cannot win the nomination under any reasonable circumstances but will not pull out of the race. I am not calling for her to drop out;
****
Professor, your rhetoric is sooo academic it stinks!
Either you are wrong or you are a wuss! Which is it?
"stinks...wuss?"
I keep hoping for more intellectualism in this discussion.
I found the numbers cited to be very interesting. While I follow politics pretty closely - and of course work in them, I appreciate an occasional update on the statistics of the race. The $64 question of course is if she cannot win then why does she still run?
I think she hopes for an Obama meltdown, major irreversable gaffe or unexpected skeleton to run him from the campaign. She will then be positioned for the nomination.
The truth is that he has faced enough of these already to sink a lesser candidate and he has weathered them pretty well. I admire him a lot...although as a staunch R he will not enjoy my vote. But he reminds me of RFK, and 1968 (I was 18). The issues were different somewhat but there is enough deja vu to go around.
Had Bobby become president I likely would have become a D. Sometimes an inspiring person can change the world for a generation. For the Dems, Senator Clinton is de-inspiring...and Obama is their best hope, and a pretty good one.
Thanks professor for a good analysis.
Campaign '08 is NOT an intellectual concept.
Sorry. Go Fish.
PA
still think she's a dead candidate after yesterday's decisive victory in pennsylvania?
She's been dead since she met Bill, lady.
next
Billary should go through the motions
This is only going to make the race more interesting. Plus, the Democratic party needs this primary story to run its course. Who wants to watch boring old McCain anyway, who's simply Wanna-be Reagan "clone" McCain. In case you didn't know it already, McCain is a Democrat in a Republican suit.