I was shocked when I got the email from the Grant campaign (I try to sign up for emails from as many campaigns as possible) noting Larry Grant was dropping out of the race. This begs the question of why. Grant did not mention any reason besides the need for party unity though Minnick dropping out of the race would accomplish the same thing, so why would Grant drop out?

The reason most candidates lose races or drop out of elections is due to money. This is the most logical reason for why Grant dropped out. Based upon prior financial reports, Minnick had over $400,000 while Grant was under $30,000. You cannot keep a campaign, even a grass-roots campaign, going with so little money. Without money, staffers can’t get paid, suppliers are not happy and forget about any advertising. Minnick’s campaign was already contacting voters by phone in order to create lists for their Get Out The Vote campaign. Grant obviously could not financially compete.

Another problem for Grant was Andrus and the party establishment. The most influential members of the Idaho Democratic Party’s “Old Guard” were supporting Minnick. As I mentioned before, these “realists” felt that Minnick had a better chance of beating Sali in the general election. It is difficult to raise money or staff a campaign in Idaho for a Democrat without the backing of Andrus and the other heavy hitters in the Party.

Kevin Richert posits the question of will Democrats rally around Minnick. If there were that many, say a majority, of Democrats supporting Grant, he would not have dropped out. Grant does have a core of dedicated and loyal supporters. These people will vote for Minnick over Sali, of course. The question is how much will these Grant loyalists do to help Minnick? Will they work for Minnick? I think the answer to that question depends on Grant. If Larry Grant actively is working for Minnick, most of his supporters will also. Remember, all Democrats despise Bill Sali so it won’t be hard to get them on board. With both candidates so similar on the issues, the Democrats in the First CD, like in the presidential race, will rally around the nominee.

Grant’s decision is interesting also on the Republican side. With a heavily contested primary for the Democrats, most Democrats and some Independents would be voting in the Democratic primary. With that scenario ended, all those voters will go to the GOP primary. This may not affect the First CD race in the GOP primary but it could have an effect on county and state legislative races that are contested amongst GOP candidates. This is Rod Beck’s worse nightmare.

Grant’s decision does help Minnick in a number of ways. Minnick now can husband his resources for the general election and concentrate his attacks on Sali. Minnick also does not have to worry about Grant attacking him or creating more of split between him and the Grant supporters. There is a downside for the Minnick campaign. A primary battle would generate free media publicity and help Minnick with name recognition among the voters. He now has to do all of the heavy lifting himself until the fall. I believe overall that Grant’s decision helps Minnick but a clean primary campaign directed at the voters might have been best.

Minnick still has a long row to hoe to win this election. In presidential election years, Idaho’s turnout increases and that means more Republicans going to the polls. Sali is a better candidate as an incumbent than he was two years ago. For Minnick to win, he must do well in Northern Idaho. He needs Moscow and especially Lewiston to come back into the Democratic fold. Minnick also needs to not get clobbered in Canyon County. If he loses 65-35 like past Democrats (though Grant got almost 40% of the vote in Canyon County in 2006), there are not enough votes in the rest of the district to make up such a deficit. Canyon County must be reasonably close for any Democrat to win.

Larry Grant must have concluded he could not win the primary and thus gracefully dropped out of the race for the good of the party. This is a noble gesture. I would guess we may see Larry Grant on the ballot in 2010 running for a state-wide position. He should get the unqualified support of the entire Idaho Democratic Party, whatever his future plans may be.

Go Yotes.

Dr. Jasper M. LiCalzi
Professor
Department of Political Economy
The College of Idaho